Russell Berman: “Democrats are betting that they can reverse long-held conventional wisdom on voting behavior. Support is generally thought to flow from the top of the ticket down: State and local candidates ‘ride the coattails‘ of the presidential nominee, and parties sink or swim on the strength of their standard-bearers. Not this year… A large part of the theory of victory is the reverse coattails.”
“The strategy is a gamble. Although Democrats have had plenty of down-ballot success in recent years, particularly since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision striking down Roe v. Wade, previous elections offer scant evidence of a reverse-coattails effect. Even today, polls indicate that support for abortion access isn’t translating into support for Biden, who has often run well behind state-level Democratic candidates.”
“Nevertheless, faith in the reverse-coattails effect is fueling Democratic investments in down-ballot races and referenda.”
