Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: How high should you draft Connor Bedard?

If you haven’t had your draft yet, you’re probably pretty happy right about now.

Things like the injuries to Andrei Vasilevskiy and Alex Killorn can really screw up your roster if you’ve already drafted. We’re also seeing a number of young players emerge in the pre-season that could be major factors this year and other players who are getting looks on the top line that may make you think differently about them.

I know everyone is excited for fantasy hockey at this time of year and a lot of people want to start drafting in their leagues as soon as they can, but there are benefits to holding out until as close to the season as possible. You’ll have the most accurate and up-to-date knowledge of players and their teams the longer you wait.

Recommend to fellow competitors in your league to try and find a draft time closer to puck drop. Patience will pay off. 

Time for your questions:

This is very close, but I’d probably go with Tomas Hertl. I think he has more upside and Logan Couture is dealing with an injury right now that may keep him sidelined to start the season. I agree that you don’t really want to own two San Jose Sharks, as they could arguably be one of the weaker teams in the league this season. There’s nothing wrong with rostering Hertl, though.

No, I haven’t really heard anything and I actually could see them rolling with three goalies from time to time. They’ve done it before. I think the Carolina Hurricanes really value goalie depth and they know with Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta, they’ll need insurance for injuries. Pyotr Kochetkov also has more term on his contract than the other two and is making more money than Raanta, so you’d think he’s factored into their plans this season.

It’s not ideal for fantasy because they’ll all have value, but you really can’t pinpoint who will have the most and they will all play less frequently than they would if it was just a two-goalie rotation. I’d bet on Kochetkov because he’s likely to stay the healthiest and maybe they end up moving Raanta at some point this season if they need to free up cap space.

One way to help with the above problem is to grab a couple of the Canes goalies and to answer this question, I’d say go with Andersen and Kochetkov to help insulate you. I think those two will play the most out of the three in Carolina and if you already have Thatcher Demko, that should put you in decent shape between the pipes.

Evan Rodrigues is an interesting option this year because as you said, he’ll likely play with Aleksander Barkov. If Barkov can stay healthy, he could be a 90-point player and definitely help Rodrigues’ point totals. If nothing else, Rodrigues always has great shot volume, so you could roster him to start the year and see how it goes with Barkov. If that line gets broken up you can always just move on from Rodrigues.

I’m not a prospect guru by any means, and if you’re excluding well-known names like Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, I’d look at some players that are impressing in training camp. Zach Benson and Matt Coronato come to mind, as they’ve both looked good this pre-season and have been able to find the back of the net. These aren’t the most obscure prospects, but they may not be on the radar of casual fantasy hockey participants and both could be a factor in the NHL sooner rather than later.

I’m definitely keeping Akira Schmid here. I think he has a great chance to take over the starter’s job for the New Jersey Devils on what we know is a very good team. Even if Schmid only ends up being the 1B, you also have the Vegas tandem to give you more than enough starts. It’s hard to trust Philipp Grubauer at this point and Schmid has more upside.

I’d actually rank them just how you have them there. Luke Hughes could have decent value as early as this season and the rest I think are still a little ways off. Leo Carlsson has the most upside and as mentioned, Benson has impressed this preseason. Besides Hughes, though, I don’t see any of these players paying dividends in 2023-24.

This is a great question. So, I have Bedard ranked 47^th in one-year leagues, but in this situation, he would obviously be bumped up. That said, I’d only move him up about 20 spots or so to a second-round grade because you can only keep him for four seasons.

I have Bedard pegged for 70 points this season and he’s only going to get better, but it may take him a few years until he reaches elite status. That could mean you’d only get one or two majorly productive seasons from Bedard in your format. If you can keep players forever, there’s an argument to be made that Bedard could go first overall.

Brandt Clarke could have value, but I’d probably take a wait-and-see approach with him on waivers. He still has Drew Doughty in front of him on the top power-play unit and with only nine NHL games under his belt, it’s going to take some time to acclimate himself to the pro game. Clarke will be much more valuable in dynasty and keeper leagues.

I think it varies from player to player and what situation they are in at the time. Something like what Erik Karlsson did last year at his age is very rare, that’s why you should be cautious about drafting him too high because he’ll have a tough time duplicating it. I’d say generally I look at year four or as a player approaches their mid-20s, but it could take longer if the team around them is rebuilding. It’s not an exact science, unfortunately.

I think I’d go with Nazem Kadri here. Michael Rasmussen has some potential, but he’s never really shown anything close to the kind of offence Kadri has in his career. If your league has hits Rasmussen deserves more consideration, though I think the Calgary Flames are going to be a bounce-back team this year and Kadri will benefit. I’d stick with him.

Hi Mike! Do you think Zack Benson will stay in buf?

I talked a little bit about how impressive Benson has looked in the preseason, so I could see him at least getting a few regular season games with Buffalo Sabres. I’m not sure he stays for the bulk of the season, though, as the Sabres have a lot of talented forwards and it’s going to be a log jam for ice time. I think the best thing for his development may ultimately be to go back to junior for a bit longer

I’ll say Max Domi for this season. Domi has had a few productive seasons in the past and he’s probably playing with the most talented roster he ever has before. He’s also the more likely of the two to get power play time and as good as Matthew Knies looked in the postseason last year, there will obviously be growing pains in a long 82-game season. If Domi finds a home playing with William Nylander, it wouldn’t be crazy to see him hit 50-plus points.

Do I really have to spend my last $10 on this? Okay, I’ll go with Alexis Lafreniere, narrowly edging out Kaapo Kakko. The New York Rangers are thin at right wing and I think Lafreniere is going to get great deployment this season. Unfortunately, power play time will be hard to come by, but if Lafreniere gets to play with Mika Zibanejad or Artemi Panarin for most of the season, he has a chance for 55 points or so.

have Jack Hughes ranked fourth in my rankings, so I think it’s great value if you get him eighth overall. Hughes should break 100 points if he stays healthy and there is a ton of talent for him to play with in the Devils’ top six.

When it comes to Bowen Byram or Jake Sanderson, I’d lean towards Byram. He scored 10 times in only 42 games last season and is great for category coverage. I think Sanderson is going to be a great offensive player, I’m just not convinced it’s coming this season.

In a 12-team H2H points league, roster size of 24 so late rounds get thin. Your thoughts on good guys to swing for the fences (cross-sport reference) with?

I always like taking a chance on young players with upside at this point in the draft. Coronato or someone like Logan Cooley would be good bets at this point, as opposed to taking a veteran with a low ceiling. Cooley really intrigues me in a very underrated Arizona Coyotes offence.

What are the chances that Alexander Holtz stays on the 2nd line and Mercer gets pushed down to line 3 long term? I drafted Mercer in round 10.

If I had to put money on it right now, I’d bet Dawson Mercer plays in the top six more than Alexander Holtz this season. That said, I don’t think Holtz is bad to roster, as he’s looked good in the preseason so far and the Devils seem intent on giving him more of an opportunity. Plus, he’ll likely be the next man up in the top six if there are any injuries, so he’ll probably get some decent deployment for good stretches in 2023-24.

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