The 2022 midterms have arrived and here are seven things to watch in Tuesday’s midterm elections:
Who will control the House: Of all the major storylines on Tuesday evening, this is one that few Democrats dispute: It is unlikely the party will control the legislative chamber come January. Given Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to take the majority, the odds of the GOP taking back the House are high. The party is on offense in House race across the country, but most notably in districts Biden won handily just two years ago, including once seemingly solid blue districts in Rhode Island, New York and Oregon.
Who will control the Senate: If control of the House feels like more of an unavoidable loss for Democrats, control of the currently evenly divided Senate offers a surprising bright spot for the party — aided by voters harboring unfavorable feelings about Republican candidates while also disapproving of Biden’s job performance. The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are on the ballot are in Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona and Georgia, where polls show each of those races are tight. The party is on offense in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states Biden won just two years ago.
Election deniers in key swing states: Republicans who have parroted former President Donald Trump‘s lies about widespread voter fraud are seeking to take charge of some swing states’ election machinery. The outcomes in those states could have dramatic consequences in 2024, with Trump on the verge of another presidential bid and candidates in crucial swing states seeking positions that they could attempt to use to undercut voters’ will.
Will Latino voters continue rightward shift: Republicans will watch whether they built on the gains that Trump made among Latino voters two years ago. Three House races in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley in Texas will tell part of the story. Latino voters also make up crucial portions of the electorate in Arizona, Nevada and Miami-Dade County in Florida.
The impact of presidential politics: “If we lose the House and Senate, it’s going to be a horrible two years,” Biden said at a fundraiser on Friday. It’s an argument former President Barack Obama, who stumped for candidates in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania over the last few weeks, made explicitly during his final rally in Philadelphia on Saturday.
The wave-makers (or breakers): The shape of Congress over the next two years could become pretty apparent within the first few hours after the polls close on the East Coast — even if a handful of big races are too close to call. For Democrats, defeat in even two out of three of the contests would portend a very, very bad night. The party, both nationally and in certain states, has increasingly invested its electoral fate on the notoriously fickle suburbs. If a Republican wave is coming, the first sighting of high tides will be up and down the Atlantic seaboard.
The wait: As most Americans learned two years ago, Election Day can be a misnomer. Tuesday is when voting ends. But, in many states, it’s also when counting begins. That means a lot of hotly contested races could take into the wee hours or even later this week to be decided. That’s partially the nature of counting — and sometimes recounting — but it’s also due to state laws that instruct poll workers how to do their jobs and, in some states, make them hold off on doing them until later in the day.
