Nate Cohn: “Imagine, for a moment, that the latest Times/Siena polls in every key state were right on the mark. They won’t be, of course, but here’s the result you would get in the Electoral College: Harris 270, Trump 268.”
“In terms of the electoral count, it would be the closest modern U.S. presidential election…”
“We’ve had a lot of close elections in recent memory, but in none of them were the polls so close. In each of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020, a candidate led by at least a few points in enough states to make one candidate a material if not overwhelming favorite. As Hillary Clinton can attest, a modest but clear lead is not a guarantee of victory. But here, neither Ms. Harris nor Mr. Trump can claim even that.”
