State of the Heavyweights: Which upcoming fights can take division out of limbo?

The UFC heavyweight division is in a really weird place right now.

Jon Jones remains out of action and pencilled in for a showdown with Stipe Miocic that was originally scheduled to take place last November and becomes increasingly difficult to justify with each week that goes by without a date for the postponed clash between the current and former champion being announced.

Jones has competed just once in the last four years and change, winning the title in quick fashion in a bout with Ciryl Gane last March. Miocic hasn’t fought since March 2021 when he dropped the belt to Francis Ngannou, and last registered a victory in August 2020 when he won the rubber match in his three-fight set with Daniel Cormier.

As much as Miocic earned the title of the best heavyweight in UFC history with his multiple title reigns and numerous successful defences, it feels like the “best before” date for using those accolades as a means to secure a championship opportunity has passed. With Andrei Arlovksi’s departure from the promotion following UFC 303 last weekend, Miocic now has zero wins against current UFC heavyweights.

When the bout was first announced, it made some sense and felt like a reasonable pairing for both men, but now that we’re more than six months removed from their initial date and the division continues to sit in limbo, waiting for this proposed matchup to be completed, it’s increasingly feeling like a fight that is standing in the way of the division moving forward.

There was some forward progress started last month in Saudi Arabia, where Alexander Volkov defeated Sergei Pavlovich to register his fourth straight victory and further cement his standing as a Top 5 talent in the division, and this month’s lone pay-per-view delivers an interim title fight that should, in theory, provide a bit of a jolt to the otherwise static division.

As we try to figure out how to get things moving again in the critically important heavyweight ranks, let’s start by looking at the matchups that have already been announced and the potential impact they carry.

Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski (UFC 304 — July 27)

Parkin is a rare find in the heavyweight division at the moment — an undefeated fighter under the age of 30 who has shown some promise through his first three UFC appearances.

A graduate of Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS), the 28-year-old Brit has posted consecutive wins over Jamal Pogues, Caio Machado, and Mohammed Usman to begin his time in the Octagon, and training routinely alongside KSW heavyweight ruler Phil De Fries will certainly provide him with plenty of opportunities to learn and develop.

Brzeski is also a DWCS alum who finally got things moving in the right direction last time out, halting a three-fight slide in the process, but this one is more about seeing what further developments Parkin has made as he heads into his second bout of the year.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes (UFC 304)

After winning the interim championship in New York City last November, Aspinall puts his belt on the line against Blaydes, the lone man to hold a victory over him in the UFC, in the UFC 304 co-main event.

Many consider Aspinall to be the best active heavyweight in the UFC at the moment, and long to see him face off with either Jones or Miocic, or both, or Alex Pereira; more on him shortly.

Blaydes comes in off a momentum-stopping knockout win over Jailton Almeida at UFC 299 in March and finally gets the opportunity to fight for UFC gold for the first time after amassing a 13-4 record with one no contest over the course of his eight-year UFC career.

How this one plays out could potentially have a ripple effect throughout the division, as a victory for Aspinall puts a number of interesting potential matchups on the table. While those same possibilities exist should Blaydes emerge victorious, the tenured Chicagoland native doesn’t carry the same “unsure where his ceiling rests” appeal as his British adversary.

Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac (UFC Vegas 95 — Aug. 10)

This is one of those matchups that plenty of folks won’t get excited about, but it’s a meeting of Top 10 fighters and is going to have ramifications on future matchups further up the rankings, so it has to be discussed.

Tybura got back into the win column earlier this year by putting Tai Tuivasa to sleep and has gone 8-2 over his last 10 Octagon appearances. Still only 29 years old, Spivac is returning for the first time since having his three-fight run of success halted in Paris last September by Gane and will look to avenge his earlier loss to the Polish veteran here.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (UFC 305 — Aug. 17)

Top 15 mainstays face off in Perth as Tuivasa looks to get things moving in the right direction again, while Rozenstruik aims to build off a good win earlier this year.

Tuivasa is a beloved joker and all-action fighter, but he’s dropped four straight, getting finished in each of them, and needs a win in order to show he still has something to offer going forward. “Bigi Boy” grabbed a win over Shamil Gaziev in early March, outlasting the exhausted UFC sophomore, who was forced to retire (from the fight, not the sport) at the close of the fourth round.

Veteran holdovers like these two are critical figures for any division, and this should be a fun scrap for as long as it lasts, but the days of either of these two being in the mix appear to have passed.

Divisional Question Marks

Where is Ciryl Gane these days?

After fighting 11 times in his first four years on the roster, the talented French fighter hasn’t competed since besting Spivac last September in Paris. As much as the Jones-Miocic situation has stalled things at the top of the division, so too has Gane being M.I.A. for the last nine months.

He’s unquestionably talented, having won his first seven appearances under the UFC banner, including claiming interim gold while only losing to Ngannou and Jones, but at a time when other names are emerging in the heavyweight ranks, his absence speaks volumes and leaves a difficult hole to fill when it comes to matchmaking the top contenders.

Where does Alex Pereira fit?

The light heavyweight champion retained his title last Saturday with a second-round knockout win over Jiri Prochazka and seems like a prime candidate to one day move up another division and potentially challenge for a third title.

Aspinall has expressed some interest in the match-up, and Jones has teased sticking around post-Miocic to potentially face the Brazilian wrecking machine — though he did suggest Pereira should have to get through Aspinall first — and both possibilities are music to the ears of every fight fan.

At least one more fight at light heavyweight makes sense before a move up, and hopefully, by that time the title picture will be sorted so “Poatan” can challenge for the undisputed title if and when he does make the jump to heavyweight.

Here’s Where It Gets Tricky

In most weight classes, there are a number of additional names and emerging talents to pay close attention to as they could string together a couple of key wins to move into contention or thrust themselves into the Top 15 by climbing the divisional ladder quicker than expected.

That doesn’t really exist at heavyweight.

You can play “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon” with everyone in the rankings and you only need two or three degrees max, which makes it somewhat difficult to get too excited about what the future may hold.

As much as I’d love to see Volkov square off with Jailton Almeida, which feels like a logical fight to make next for both men, the fact that the Russian veteran has already lost to Aspinall, Blaydes, and Gane, while Almeida was recently bested by Blaydes makes a fight that kind of leads to nowhere all that exciting.

Moreover, there just aren’t any real emerging talents that jump out as potential contenders at the moment, with the aforementioned Parkin being much more of a long-term prospect.

Waldo Cortes Acosta has gone 5-1 in the UFC but lost his lone step up in competition. Martin Buday has a shiny record and a penchant for clinch-heavy slogs. Karl Williams has done okay, going 3-0 to begin his tenure, but doesn’t show the kind of explosive upside that really gets you psyched to see him face Jhonata Diniz, the latest former kickboxer looking to chase UFC glory, later this summer.

The Tafa Brothers, Justin and Junior, are always fun to watch, but have limited upside, while the excitement surrounding Robelis Despaigne dissipated early this spring when he lost to Cortes Acosta.

Ideally, we finally get Jones and Miocic over and done with later this year, the winner sticks around to face the interim champ in a title unification bout in the first half of 2025, and in the meantime, Gane returns, Pereira announces a move up, and a couple genuinely promising new arrivals materialize out of the ether to make things a little more exciting in the UFC heavyweight division.

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