Biden Is a Slight Favorite to Win Re-Election

The following guest post is from Spencer Lindsay, a faculty member in the School of Government and Public Policy at the University of Arizona.

Predicting elections and estimating the uncertainty around those predictions is not an easy task. It is especially difficult to have a clear picture of the outcome six and a half months before the election. This does not mean, however, that the math is unable to shed light on the state of the race nor that it will fail to teach meaningful lessons about where things stand.