Ilya Samsonov or Joseph Woll: Who should be Toronto’s Game 1 playoff starter?

With 12 games remaining in the Toronto Maple Leafs schedule, the team appears to be in relatively good shape between the posts. Their goaltending has been mostly solid for a long stretch of games. Ilya Samsonov has been in good form for his past 20 games and though he left Saturday’s contest early Sheldon Keefe said the diagnosis was “not anything we would consider a concern at this point” and the expectation was that the goalie would practice Wednesday with the team.

Meantime, Joseph Woll appeared close to being the best version of himself in Carolina on Sunday night.

Overall, the Leafs are a middle of the pack outfit when it comes to their goals-against average for the season. Here’s a look at how the goalie stats break down for the entire year so far:

Samsonov has been an interesting study this year and it’s impossible to understate the roller coaster ride his season has been. But Samsonov has been mostly solid for a long stretch of games now. Over his past 20 starts he has posted a 2.72 GAA, paired with a .901 save percentage.

Martin Jones came to the rescue when Samsonov was regrouping mid-season and Woll was out with injury. The veteran goalie has provided what the Leafs brass had hoped he would if they had to slot him into games.

Woll’s return from injury has produced some inconsistent results. His 2.80 goals-against average contrasts his .888 save percentage in the five games he’s been back. Returning from a high ankle sprain is difficult for a goaltender and when you consider Woll’s also returning at the hardest time of year, as teams are vying for playoff position, things get even more challenging for him. But his outstanding effort in Sunday’s 2-1 loss to Carolina showed promise he could get back on track. Despite allowing two goals in the first period, he buckled down and made several big stops the rest of the way, giving the Leafs a chance to win on the second of back-to-back games in a tough environment of the road.

So we have to start to wonder: Who will start Game 1 in the playoffs for Toronto? Let’s explore their options.

LOW, MID, AND HIGH DANGER SAVES

Not all shots on goal are packaged the same way. With help from MoneyPuck.com, here are the three categories of shots on goal:

Low Danger: Seventy-five per cent of shots on goal are considered low danger. An unblocked shot on goal from, say, the blue line, is considered a low danger attempt. These shots have less than eight per cent chance of entering the net.

Mid Danger: Twenty per cent of shots on goal fall into the mid-danger category. An example of a mid-danger shot would be a shot from the flank, between the face-off dot and the hash mark. An unblocked shot in this category accounts for greater than eight per cent, but less than 20 per cent of the goals scored in the league.

High Danger: Players in the NHL who drive to the middle of the ice, or find pucks between the face-off dots and around the crease, are worth their weight in gold. Skaters who generate high danger scoring chances account for only five per cent of all shots on goal in the NHL. The results are much more positive when a player generates scoring chances in these areas, though. Shooters convert 20 per cent of their scoring chances from high danger areas of the ice.

Woll and Samsonov have contributed the following save percentages in the three shot categories:

GETTING STOPS ON THE PENALTY KILL

On Sunday night’s broadcast, my colleague Elliotte Friedman brought up an excellent point about the Toronto Maple Leafs. I’m paraphrasing, but the point he was making was that teams can win in the playoffs with a poor power play, but have no chance with a below standard penalty-kill.

The Leafs will undoubtedly face either the Boston Bruins or the Florida Panthers in the first round. Notice the relative parity in the goals for and power play percentage rankings of all three teams. The difference in penalty kill rate is staggering:

• I recognize the goaltender is a team’s most important player on the penalty kill. It’s his job to come up with timely saves when his group is shorthanded.

• Woll’s save percentage when the Leafs are shorthanded is .885. Samsonov’s save percentage on the penalty kill is .845 over the course of the entire season.

• To be fair, Samsonov had a terrible stretch of games before Christmas that contributed greatly to his lopsided statistics in some categories.

• The entire group in front of the goalies also has to be dialled in defensively, understand their roles, and be willing to block shots.

• The fact of the matter is it’s nearly impossible to win in the playoffs without a penalty-kill operating at over an 80 per cent success rate.

GOALIE COMPARISON

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Maple Leafs allow more high danger chances against than most clubs currently occupying a playoff spot. From Sunday’s game against Carolina alone I could present seven to 10 examples of Toronto players being out of position or not managing the puck appropriately. But the team needs stops at key moments of games and that responsibility falls on Woll and Samsonov.

To be honest, I don’t currently see a separation between the two Leaf goaltenders. Both have ranged from average to great in their last segment of games.

So we’ll break down both goaltenders…

ILYA SAMSONOV

Samsonov is plenty athletic and capable of making acrobatic stops when required. In the following sequence he reads the play developing from the corner, to the slot, and eventually to Leon Draisaitl on the flank. Watch closely how Samsonov tracks the play, fronts the shot from the slot and pushes across square to make a big stop. It’s an example of Samsonov at his best.

Samsonov is best described as an athletic, butterfly goalie. Almost all goalies who play his style have holes in their game when they get too active in their crease. They tend to lose their net or angle between the posts.

Here’s an example where Samsonov lacks initial positioning and control of his body when he drops into the butterfly, which results in him losing the ability to front a second shot off a rebound. He’s leaning forward in both sequences, making himself smaller in the net and ending up on his stomach in the goal against. When Samsonov is off he tends to lose his crease composure.

Finally, the following clip speaks to some of the instances in games (there are plenty to choose from) when Leafs defenders aren’t aggressive enough gapping up and killing zone entries by their opponents. I’m not going to take a ton of time analyzing what Timothy Liljegren is doing in this sequence, but I’ve highlighted how he gives up far too much space as Carolina enters the Leafs’ zone.

The result is a quality snap shot on goal from Jake Guentzel and an even more impressive stop from Samsonov on the low stick side.

JOSEPH WOLL

In my opinion, the biggest difference between the two Leafs goalies is that Samsonov is far more active than Woll, who instead relies on using his size (6-foot-3 203 pounds) to his advantage. He’s not as athletic as Samsonov, but he’s much more composed overall.

I truly felt Woll played one of the best games of his young career in that Carolina game.

The following sequence appears simple enough, but Woll’s initial stop on Martin Necas is a quality save. Woll positions himself with his toes outside the blue paint of his crease to limit the amount of net Necas has to shoot at. The rebound jumps to the point for a second chance, but Woll is positioned well and tracks the play to his glove.

Of course, not everything is perfect with Woll either. He also has allowed a couple goals recently that I felt he could have stopped.

The following clip shows an egregious turnover from William Nylander and serves as an example of the risk/reward approach the Leafs get from a player like him.

Still, Woll would probably like to have this sequence back. The breakaway starts from the far blue line and Woll has plenty of time to set himself better than he does. Bruins forward Trent Frederic directs the puck on net from a fair distance and beats Woll between the legs. He wasn’t set, or compact enough, to make the stop.

Lastly, here’s a clip of one of Woll’s best stops from the Carolina game. The Leafs defence doesn’t have enough time to front the neutral zone regroup from the Hurricanes and gives up too much room on the zone entry as a result. Connor Dewar swings and misses on Necas before Necas (again) directs a quality scoring chance on net.

Woll is positioned above his crease and square to the initial shot, but it’s the second save he makes moving laterally that displays his ability to track and make a desperation glove save.

STRATEGY

Right now, both Samsonov and Woll are providing above average to good and occasionally great goaltending. Neither of them have pulled away in their battle for the Leafs’ crease full-time.

With Woll only having played five games since returning from injury, and Samsonov playing some of the best hockey of his season for a long stretch, it’s going to take a couple more weeks to figure out who Toronto’s best option in net is for the playoffs.

Toronto has 12 games remaining, seven at home and five on the road. Half of those games will come against opponents currently in a playoff spot, and all their remaining games are against Eastern Conference opponents. And there are two more situations where the Leafs play on back-to-back days.

My suggestion would be to split the remaining games between Woll and Samsonov. After each of them has an opportunity to prove himself in their next six-game segment, choose the one you will start on opening night of the playoffs and run with him until his wheels fall off. And at that time, you can always turn back to the other guy.

The reality facing Toronto is they don’t have a clear cut 1A goalie heading down the stretch. Both Samsonov and Woll will very likely be called upon at some point in the playoffs.

Toronto’s more pressing concern has to be finding a way to improve its penalty kill before the puck drops on Game 1 versus either Florida or Boston. And that’s something Justin Bourne will explore here this week.

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