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What a Split in Consumer Confidence Means for Biden

Nate Silver: “For almost a quarter-century, a majority of voters have consistently thought the country is on the wrong track. There are many indications of a rise in poor mental health (and equally many hypotheses for why that’s happened). Many Americans have existential concerns about the long-term future for reasons ranging from environmental degradation to runaway artificial intelligence.”

“Fundamentally, Mr. Biden’s challenge is that it’s hard to persuade voters who are used to constant doomscrolling that it’s Morning in America again. The incumbency advantage seems to be declining; it’s been 40 years since a president won re-election by a double-digit margin.”

“But there is good news for Mr. Biden: Voter perceptions about the economy are not just vibes — in fact, consumer sentiment has tracked the objective data well. That data, particularly the pocketbook numbers that were the weak point before, has begun to improve, and that leaves the door open for a potential second Biden term.”

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