Nate Silver: “Let me state this extremely carefully: emotionally, I’ve accepted this (Trump 2.0) as the default outcome. Rationally, I don’t.”
“If we do get a Trump-Biden rematch, I think the odds are roughly 50/50. And there’s an outside chance that the next president is someone other than those two. Both Trump and Biden are extremely old. Haley’s prospects are poor but not so poor that you can round them down to zero. A third-party win is extremely unlikely but maybe you’d take a flier on one at +5000 or something.”
“The odds on who wins the presidency probably ought to be something like: Trump 45%, Biden 45%, other 10%. So if you were offered a bet on Trump at even money you’d turn it down, I suppose. (At prediction markets, Trump’s chances are 41 percent, not far from my subjective estimate.)”
