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Trump on Track for Narrow Electoral College Win

According to new research from Stack Data Strategy, Donald Trump would today beat Joe Biden in the Electoral College, 292 to 246, even as Biden narrowly wins the popular vote, 49% to 48%.

Playbook: “Trump’s projected victory is based on him winning the four states that were decided by the closest margin in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All four flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, and this projection has them swinging back to Trump — albeit by tight margins: Arizona by 1.4%, Georgia by 3.3%, Pennsylvania by 2.3%, and Wisconsin by 0.9%.”

Key takeaway: “In the four states projected to flip to Trump, ‘other’ candidates receive a not-insignificant portion of the vote: 4.0% in Arizona, 2.6% in Georgia, 3.1% in Pennsylvania, and 3.2% in Wisconsin.”

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