Nate Silver: “It’s inherently kind of crazy that American presidential campaigns take more than a year to run, but they do. Late entrants don’t have a very good track record. Case in point: Michael Bloomberg, who formally entered the Democratic nomination race on Nov. 24, 2019 and spent more than $1 billion in four months. For his troubles, he won … the American Samoa caucus. And that was it.”
“So as much as it might make sense for Democrats to replace Joe Biden on their ticket, who’s age is a huge concern to voters and who is polling poorly against Trump, it’s not like we’re playing Fantasy Politics Manager here. Convincing Biden to step aside would not be easy. Running a race against him if he didn’t step down would be messy, with little guarantee of who would emerge victorious other than that it might be Biden anyway, worse for battle wear. Then there’s the whole question of what might happen to Vice President Harris.”
“So my view as of six weeks ago was that it was probably just too late to replace Biden. But as Biden’s polling gets worse — his approval ratings are near their lowest-ever number — I’ve been increasingly hedging on that. Democrats would be taking a huge risk by replacing Biden — but they’re also taking a huge risk by nominating him. There’s no getting out of this.”
