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Scout’s Analysis: How Fraser Minten earned a spot with the Maple Leafs


When training camps open in September, organizations look forward to viewing some of their top prospects in an NHL setting. Rookie camp practices lead to rookie tournament games followed by promotions to NHL training camp. There are instances where prospects “earn” an exhibition game before being returned to their junior clubs. With salary cap dollars generally spent in the off-season, or already invested in a veteran team, the likelihood of a prospect surprising to make a pro roster out of camp has diminished over the years. Exceptions, of course, do exist. Some rebuilding teams, like the Chicago Blackhawks for example, are more likely to have younger prospects on their roster than the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Fraser Minten is a Toronto Maple Leafs prospect who still has junior eligibility, meaning he has to play in the NHL or be returned to Kamloops of the WHL. So far he’s made the Leafs out of camp and the next step is to evaluate Minten up to the 10-game mark of the regular season. If Minten has earned a permanent roster spot by his 10th game he’ll remain with the Leafs and his full salary and bonuses will be reflected in the team salary cap. At that point, one year of Minten’s entry-level contract will be spent, regardless of whether the Leafs decide to send him back to junior at the 20-game mark (for example).

I’ve tracked Minten closely through rookie and training camps. He jumped out immediately in Traverse City at the prospects tournament and then made his mark at main camp with the Leafs.

Here’s what I have observed from a scouting perspective:

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NOTES FROM TRAVERSE CITY

As I mentioned above, Fraser stood out in the Traverse City Prospects Tournament, where it was immediately clear he worked hard in the off-season to add more strength. His pace has gone to another level as well. It may sound simple, but the first thing I look for in a prospect is their ability to “play fast and think fast.” If a prospect can’t keep up, or doesn’t have the hockey sense to read the ice, he won’t last long at training camp.

Here was my report on Minten coming out of the rookie games, before I, or anyone, realized he would stick in the NHL right away:

Fraser Minten, 6-foot-1, 190 pounds, left shot: Drafted 38th overall in 2022

Minten was one of the top forwards for the Leafs in Traverse City. He’s set to return, eventually, to Kamloops (WHL). I’m assuming, based on his impact at the tournament, Minten will graduate to Leafs main camp. He was used in all situations this weekend, and thrived. Minten emptied the tank in all three zones. He produced offence, won key defensive zone face-offs, killed penalties, blocked shots, and scored. Minten played all three games in Traverse City, scoring one goal and four assists.

NHL Projection: Top six forward

GRADUATION TO MAIN CAMP

Based on Minten’s performance in Traverse City there was no doubt he would graduate to Leafs main camp. But NHL camp provides all kinds of new challenges for a young prospect. The players are bigger, stronger, and more defined (skill wise) than what the prospect would have seen in rookie games.

However, Minten didn’t skip a beat. His game went to another level at main camp, where he dressed for five pre-season games and scored one goal and one assist. He was deployed in all situations. His three-zone detail, and overall compete, earned the trust of the Leafs brass at main camp.

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MAKING THE CUT

It’s always enjoyable to watch a prospect mature and, ultimately, earn a roster spot in the NHL. Minten definitely earned his roster spot with the Leafs and he forced the organization to make some hard decisions elsewhere in their lineup.

William Nylander, for example, was apparently going to start the season playing centre. Sam Lafferty had a solid training camp and looked destined for a bottom six role in a, mostly, checking role. But with Minten evolving, the Leafs moved Nylander back to the wing and traded Lafferty to the Vancouver Canucks at the end of camp.

EARLY RETURNS

Through three regular season games Minten has averaged 12:19 of ice time, the majority of which has come at even strength, but he has also chipped in some secondary penalty-killing. He hasn’t produced offensively, although he did have some quality looks versus Chicago, won 54 per cent of his faceoffs and was credited with two hits and one blocked shot.

CAN’T SKATE, CAN’T THINK, CAN’T PLAY

All three of these categories DO NOT apply to Minten. It’s quite the opposite. Minten’s pace is definitely NHL worthy. His three-zone awareness is very reliable. He isn’t scoring, yet, but he plays the game with detail.

Here are some examples of what pro scouts look for from NHL players, and how Minten is fitting into the league:

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• The sequence begins with a 50/50 puck that I would prefer to see Minten make more of a defined effort to either get his stick on or finish a check down low in the Chicago zone.

• What follows are examples of Minten’s spatial awareness and three zone effort.

• Notice how he positions himself around the Chicago crease. He boxes out a defender, tries to set a screen, then jumps out from the crease to make himself available as an option in a scoring area.

• Towards the end of the offensive zone time he rotates above the play and exits the zone applying back pressure.

• The puck ends up on his stick in the Leafs’ zone and he calmly identifies his option to outlet the puck and head off on a line change.

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• Winning faceoffs is crucial to earning trust from NHL coaches, especially in the defensive zone.

• This shift begins with Minten winning a defensive zone draw. Watch closely as he lets Morgan Rielly know he is winning the faceoff to him in the middle of the ice.

• As the shift rolls along, Minten tracks up ice and nearly has a scoring chance. He then reacts and exits the offensive zone, skating the full distance of the ice on the back check, before heading up ice on offence again. It’s important to recognize his pace doesn’t fall off throughout the sequence.

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• Line changes are happening all the time in hockey. It’s essential for the player hopping on the ice to be ready for the play before he hops the boards.

• Minten joins the play and immediately pushes up ice with speed, through the middle lane, eventually setting a screen out front of the Chicago net. He doesn’t skate past the crease.

• As the play exits the offensive zone, Minten is forced to regroup in the neutral zone. The play eventually ends up on the “bench side” of the ice. There is very little support for Minten and Jake McCabe through this sequence (four Blackhawks compared to two Leafs), but Minten fights through traffic and tries to create a turnover as F1 on the forecheck. Support from the rest of his line mates never shows up and the Hawks exit their zone.

• Minten, again, tracks back responsibly. He establishes himself as an outlet option at the end of the shift, but the pass from Rielly is off the boards and off target.

OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THREE GAMES

Minten is already adapting to the speed of the NHL game. There are no issues with his pace. He tracks up and down the ice and continues to provide reliable play in all three zones.

He’s adapting very well in the faceoff circle, winning the majority of his draws in the process.

He’s getting some looks offensively, and is willing to battle for space around the crease and between the faceoff dots in the offensive zone.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the next six games go for Minten, before the Leafs have to make a decision to keep him in the NHL or send him back to junior, but he doesn’t look the least bit out of place so far.

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