Time running out for Blue Jays’ Guerrero Jr. to re-write his season’s narrative

Bo Bichette was hitting .260 on Aug. 31, 2022. In a two-week span he’d bounced around from sixth to fifth in John Schneider’s lineup. He’d even hit seventh — twice, since Schneider replaced Charlie Montoyo as Blue Jays manager on July 13.

“Bo is an ultra-competitive guy, so he’s probably not thrilled about it,” Schneider said on the day he first hit Bichette seventh. “It was a bit of a conversation, but I think he gets it. Our standards for him are high.”

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No less, you’d think, than the standards for Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., who like Bichette a year earlier can in the next month re-write a narrative that has been, well, nondescript at best. To that end, two home runs in the past three games might be a harbinger. Which would be timely, since — to put it politely — the Blue Jays’ season hangs in the balance and the team seems as if it’s on fumes, verging on what would be a stunningly disappointing playoff miss.

Think how that conversation between Bichette and Schneider must have gone in 2022. Schneider managed Bichette through the minors and as Montoyo’s bench coach had served as a bit of a soft shoulder for the shortstop, who continued to hear the baying from the cheap seats to move him to second base. Sure, Schneider was just trying to shake things up, give the new lineup a look. Still, it wasn’t hard to imagine how Bichette would initially take it. He could be forgiven for wondering whether Schneider was using him as an example.

Like Guerrero’s 2023, Bichette’s 2022 was a season in search of a narrative, and you know what that means. Whispers of dissatisfaction. Wondering about his place at the table, after a winter in which Bichette forced the team to renew him — taking the only route available to a pre-arbitration eligible player who feels aggrieved by the team’s salary offer. Bichette’s defence at a premier position only exacerbated the negative view from the outside.

Talk about flipping the script: Bichette raised his average by 30 points between Aug. 30 and the season’s end on Oct. 5, leading the American League in hits for the second consecutive season. He raised his OPS from .725 to .802. He hit in all but four games and had 18 multi-hit games, and for all the blah-blah-blah about a two-strike approach, he was aggressive — 85 per-cent of his at bats in that month didn’t reach two strikes. His 48 hits in September were the most ever by a Blue Jays player; he was named player of the week from Sept. 5-12. “Bo’s game is tighter now than it’s ever been,” Schneider said on the eve of the AL playoffs.

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It’s carried over. Despite missing two weeks with patellar tendinitis, Bichette is once again leading the AL in hits and made the All-Star Game after not being chosen in 2022. He also agreed to terms with the team on a three-year, $33.6-million contract. Bye-bye arbitration distractions; hello framework for a potential extension before hitting free agency following the 2025 season.

Odd. The feeling all along for a couple of years was that of the two it would be Guerrero, rather than Bichette, who would sign some sort of long-term deal. The Blue Jays front office has always used the phrase “shared risk” whenever talk focused on longer-term deals for the two, but Guerrero was the one who spoke most openly about desiring a contract. For whatever reason, there has always been a more proprietary feeling around Guerrero than Bichette; the sense that if the Blue Jays were ever going to become one player’s “team,” it was going to be Guerrero.

Now? It’s complicated and figuring out Guerrero’s 2023 season has become a cottage industry. He is probably as tired as the rest of us hearing how he hits the ball hard — and he does: his 216 hard-hit balls (95 miles per hour plus) lead the American League by a comfortable margin.

But whether it’s bad luck, hitting strategy, too many different, complicating and competing voices — or some kind of lingering health issue — Guerrero’s 2023 has been full of empty calories. The numbers show those hard-hit balls aren’t going as far as they used to. Guerrero is 63rd in OPS in the Majors compared to ninth from 2020-2022. He was eighth in WRC+ from 2020-2022; this year he’s 58^th. He’s 38th in total bases and is a half-fWAR player (0.5) after being 6.3 and 2.8 fWAR in 2021 and 2022, respectively. He’s leading the Blue Jays in home runs and RBI, but on a team that has come up short repeatedly in key offensive situations … Again, empty calories.

Guerrero is two years removed from that 2021 runner-up Most Valuable Player campaign where he played 70 home games in minor-league ballparks due to Covid restrictions. He arrived with the reputation that comes with being the game’s top-ranked prospect. But he also came with the notoriety that arises from having a Hall of Fame father whose calling card was an ability to hit any pitch at any time. One of Guerrero, Sr.’s hitting coaches with the Los Angeles Angels, Mickey Hatcher, said that watching Senior take batting practice was like watching someone wielding a tennis racket.

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Vladdy, Jr., is not his father, much as we’d all dearly love him to be. It’s understandable, since he arrived on the scene just as Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion were finishing their run — an era of baseball that re-established the Blue Jays as a national brand and helped turn the Rogers Centre into a place to be. Bautista’s Bat Flip gave a whole new generation its own “touch ‘em all” moment and it was easy to see Guerrero picking up the bat from Bautista and that gang and saying: “I got us.” And now we are just two years away from his free agency and, well, anybody know what happened to all that talk about Fernando Tatis, Jr.,’s contract setting the template for Vladdy? Rafael Devers’? Let’s be clear: without playoff success, the discussion at some point becomes less about locking Guerrero up to a market-shaking, long-term deal and more about wondering whether he’s more Pippen than Jordan. The next step? Wondering about maximizing his trade value as free agency creeps closer. Hey, it’s happened to better players. And worse.

Guerrero was not able to pick up his game during Bichette’s absence between July 31-Aug. 19, going 14-for-64 (.218) with one home run and three doubles. But here comes September with its arms wide open, with a team looking appearing to seize up in a five-way fight for a playoff spot that was, frankly, supposed to be a given. Bichette now has a quad issue to worry about. Matt Chapman’s middle finger on his throwing hand is inflamed. It’s a whole new opportunity to craft a big, bold narrative and then, well, who knows what the winter brings? It’s not like it hasn’t happened before, you know?

Jeff Blair is the co-host of Blair & Barker from 5-7 ET on the Sportsnet Radio Network and Sportsnet, He also hosts Blue Jays Talk.