MLB Playoff Push: Can Blue Jays hold off the surging Mariners?

With Sunday’s win over the Chicago Cubs, the Toronto Blue Jays accomplished something they hadn’t since July 29 — win on the same day that the Seattle Mariners lost.

Seattle’s loss on that Saturday in July dropped it to 53-51, 5.5 games back of the final wild card spot and behind the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels.

Since then, however, the Mariners have gone 10-3 — including an eight-game win streak — to catapult themselves past all the teams on the outside looking in and just 1.5 games behind the Blue Jays.

Toronto has gone 7-8 in that same stretch, getting inconsistent results from series to series. Heading into this week, the Blue Jays will get two off-days, a welcome reprieve following their 17-games in 17-days stretch.

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Now just 42 games from the end of Toronto’s regular season, let’s take stock of where all the AL wild card and AL East contenders stack up as we enter the stretch run.

IF THE POST-SEASON BEGAN TODAY

No. 1 and AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles (73-45): Bye

No. 2 and AL West-leading Texas Rangers (70-48): Bye

No. 3 Minnesota Twins (62-58) vs. No. 6 Toronto Blue Jays (66-54)

No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (71-49) vs. No. 5 Houston Astros (68-51)

WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

With the 12-team playoff format returning for 2023, the addition of a third wild card spot continues to wreak havoc on the playoff picture.

The Mariners, Yankees and Red Sox are all within five games of the Blue Jays, and despite dropping below .500, the Angels remain in the picture, just 6.5 back.

The Cleveland Guardians — 8.5 back in the wild card — could also factor into the AL Central picture, as they trail the Twins by 4.5 games.

THE LATEST WITH EACH TEAM IN AL EAST/WILD CARD CONTENTION

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles did the Blue Jays a favour this past weekend, halting Seattle’s win-streak and winning the three-game series with a pair of extra-innings wins. Centre fielder Cedric Mullins made his return to the team on Friday from a groin injury, and made his impact felt on Sunday, robbing a go-ahead home run in the ninth and hitting a go-ahead homer in the tenth.

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Texas Rangers: Despite key cogs Nathan Eovaldi, Josh Jung and Jonah Heim recently missing time due to injuries, the Rangers have kept on winning. They are 10-2 in August, and have gotten outstanding production from their rotation since the trade deadline. The group of Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery and Jon Gray has pitched to a 2.41 ERA over that stretch while striking out 30.1 per cent of hitters they’ve faced and walking just 5.7 per cent.

Minnesota Twins: The Twins, like the Rangers, have received strong starting pitching this month. Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda all have sub-2.00 ERAs in August, and have picked up six of the team’s eight wins. Minnesota has one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball, with just 12 of its remaining 42 games coming against teams currently in a post-season spot.

Tampa Bay Rays: After starting July 4-14, the Rays have started to right the ship. They have won four of their last five series, beating the likes of the Astros, Yankees and Guardians. However, Tampa Bay will now be without Wander Franco for at least its upcoming six-game road trip as MLB investigates social media posts surrounding the shortstop. It will also be without star pitcher Shane McClanahan for the rest of the season due to a forearm injury.

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Houston Astros: The Astros have won four straight series — all against teams in the playoff hunt — but haven’t been able to make up much ground in the division, thanks to the play of the Rangers. Houston is 9-4 in its last four series. Jose Altuve’s return to the lineup has provided a spark for the Astros, as the 2017 AL MVP is slashing .406/.493/.641 in his 16 games back.

Toronto Blue Jays: Like many of the contenders in the American League, Toronto’s pitching has carried the load. Since the All-Star break, the Blue Jays’ staff owns an MLB-best 3.24 ERA, while holding opposing hitters to a .235 average against. The offence, of course, has struggled in the same stretch, scoring 4.48 runs per game. The Blue Jays play just five games in the next eight days as off-days bookmark their series against the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds.

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Seattle Mariners: In what was seemingly a move to take a step back at the deadline, the Mariners’ pitching staff hasn’t missed a beat since shipping Paul Sewald to Arizona. Since the deadline, the group has a 2.56 ERA and has opposing hitters hitting just .185 against them. Seattle may have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in post-season contention, with six games against the Oakland Athletics and seven against the Kansas City Royals. It does have a tough finish to the season, however, with its last nine games coming against the Rangers and Astros.

Boston Red Sox: After being swept by Toronto in the first week of August, Boston has taken advantage of its soft schedule, going 5-2 against the Royals and Detroit Tigers. The Red Sox start a three-game set with the Washington Nationals Tuesday, before turning to one of the toughest remaining schedules. Once it’s done in Washington, Boston has six games remaining against teams under .500 and 21 games against AL East opponents. However, the returns of Trevor Story and Chris Sale have the club at the healthiest it’s been for all of 2023.

New York Yankees: Hanging on by the skin of their teeth, the Yankees are slowly losing ground in the standings. They are just 6-10 since Aaron Judge’s return to the lineup and only brought in reliever Keynan Middleton at the deadline. Since Judge came back, New York pitchers have given up the 11th most runs in baseball, and the offence has performed just above league average with a .242/.336/.402 slash line.

At the Letters

Ben Nicholson-Smith is Sportsnet’s baseball editor. Arden Zwelling is a senior writer. Together, they bring you the most in-depth Blue Jays podcast in the league, covering off all the latest news with opinion and analysis, as well as interviews with other insiders and team members.

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Los Angeles Angels: After going all-in at the trade deadline, the Angels haven’t been able to string wins together. They actually strung seven-straight losses together as soon as the Aug. 1 deadline passed. The team’s new additions haven’t performed very well since joining Los Angeles, as Reynaldo Lopez is the only new Angel to generate a positive WAR. So while Mike Trout’s imminent return and the mere presence of Shohei Ohtani are sure to help pick up some wins in September, it appears that the Angels may have fallen too far back to make up ground on at least four of the teams above them.

PLAYOFFS ODDS REPORT

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Monday, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.

Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 98.2% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.5%

Texas’ FanGraphs odds: 91.7% | Texas’ Baseball Reference odds: 97.5%

Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 90.3% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 89.4%

Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 95.7% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 91.7%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 90.3% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 84.9%

Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 66.1% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 70.3%

Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 34.2% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 44.3%

Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 15.9% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 8.8%

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 6.1% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 2.4%

Los Angeles’ FanGraphs odds: 1.6% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: 0.6%

Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 8.8% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 9.9%

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NOTABLE GAMES/SERIES THIS WEEK

PHI @ TOR: After sweeping the Blue Jays earlier in the season, the Phillies come to Toronto with their two best pitchers set to take the hill. While Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler haven’t quite pitched to the standards they’ve set in their careers, they’ve shown flashes of brilliance this season, and both held Toronto to two or fewer runs in May. Yusei Kikuchi and Kevin Gausman will get the ball for the Blue Jays, so runs will be tough to come by in the two-game set at Rogers Centre.

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LAA @ TEX: With the Angels’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread, they start a three-game series in Texas. Ohtani was initially scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, but asked to skip the start due to “arm fatigue.” Meanwhile, the Rangers will send Scherzer, Montgomery and Gray to the mound as they look to push their AL West foes even further out of contention.

SEA @ HOU: Later this week, the Mariners and Astros will kick off a three-game weekend set at Minute Maid Park. Seattle currently leads the season series 5-2, and will get a chance to make up ground both in-division and in the wild-card race. While no probable pitchers have been announced yet, it appears unlikely that either Luis Castillo or Justin Verlander will throw this weekend.

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