But the linkage to European Union membership, an issue Erdogan first raised in a phone call with President Biden on Sunday, appeared to be a new condition — raising questions about whether the Turkish leader was seeking to act as a spoiler at the NATO Summit in Lithuania on Monday, or was merely trying to wring as many concessions as possible from Western allies before agreeing to Sweden’s bid.
“We want our promises to be kept,” Erdogan said, speaking to reporters in Istanbul before departing for the summit. “First, come and pave the way for Turkey in the European Union, then let’s pave the way for Sweden, just as we paved the way for Finland,” he said.
Turkey, he added, “has been waiting at the door of the E.U. for 50 years.”
Erdogan’s comments, whatever their intent, ensured that Turkey remained at the center of the conversation as Western allies met to discuss other critical issues related to Russia’s invasion, including military support for Ukraine as well as its own request for NATO membership — bolstering Erdogan’s efforts to promote his government as an independent, if unpredictable, power broker with global reach.
“Erdogan likes to throw people off balance,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
The European Union quickly dismissed the idea of tying Sweden’s NATO bid to E.U. enlargement: “You cannot link the two processes,” Dana Spinant, a spokesperson for the European Commission, said Monday.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz echoed the sentiment, saying there is no reason to see them as a “connected issue.”
A spokesperson for the National Security Council said the U.S. had “always supported” Turkey’s E.U. aspirations “and continues to do so,” speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic negotiations. While Turkey’s “membership and process” was between the E.U. and Turkey, they added, the U.S. focus was “on Sweden, which is ready to join the NATO alliance.”
The unusual demand from Erdogan comes after months of obstruction by the Turkish leader, who won a closely fought election in May, extending his rule into a third decade.
In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last February, Finland and Sweden abandoned years of military nonalignment to seek security in NATO — only to face pushback from Turkey. Joining NATO requires unanimous approval from member countries.
A year ago, at the NATO meeting in Madrid, Erdogan dropped his opposition to Finnish and Swedish membership at the summit, stealing the show and raising hope for a quick accession process.
But the deal soured quickly, with Turkey continuing to call out Sweden for its refusal to hand over Kurds accused of being militants, and Hungary, an ally of Ankara, also signaling opposition. Ultimately, Finland decided to move ahead without Sweden, joining the alliance in April after Turkey approved its membership.
Provocative remarks from Erdogan in the run-up to this year’s summit have left officials and analysts wondering whether Sweden’s bid is doomed, or if Erdogan plans to cut a deal and is simply negotiating. Turkey’s main focus, analysts said, was the completion of a $20 billion deal for American F-16 fighter jets, an agreement that is backed by the Biden administration but that faces opposition on Capitol Hill.
“It might sound like he is closing the door on Sweden. But in reality, this is his negotiating style,” said Aydintasbas. “He knows Turkey will not get into the EU. But he wants Europeans to also put something on the table — and match U.S. efforts to free up F-16 sales to Turkey,” she said.
His comments on E.U. membership — conjuring a decades-long, frustrating process for Turkey, for which European governments shouldered some of the blame — was also a dig at the West. “He is making fun of NATO’s high talk of values and bringing it down to simple give and take,” she said.
Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council, said “it’s possible that Erdogan could be staging this so he could be the good guy, saving the summit by giving a unilateral green light.”
If so, it is a strategy that may have cost Erdogan goodwill within the alliance at a time when key members, including the United States, say unity is pivotal.
The fact that only 29 of 31 members have ratified Swedish membership has made “NATO look weaker,” Wieslander said “and that benefits Russia.”
Rauhala reported from Vilnius. Beatriz Ríos in Brussels, Kate Brady in Berlin and Toluse Olorunnipa in London contributed to this report.
