Quickie blog on the eve of free agency:
This is a tough year to predict. Surprise buyouts (Matt Duchene) and larger-than-normal number of non-qualified players — more than 110, including several useful NHLers — flooded an already tight market with extra options.
Normally, I feel confident about these predictions. This year, I’m offering no guarantees, and am fully prepared to end up on “Freezing Cold Takes.” But let’s go for it anyways:
• Some of the players who suddenly found themselves free agents on Friday were absolutely shocked. But you’ve got to recover quick because decisions need to be made. Duchene is mentally sorting through the possibilities, while another, Seattle’s Morgan Geekie, is expected to land on his feet. Heard quite a few teams were interested in talking to him, when allowed.
• I’m really watching Carolina. I think the Hurricanes have big plans, including a Sebastian Aho extension in the 8x$9.5M range. They’ve got to sort out their goaltending and figure out where they’re going with Brett Pesce. Negotiations have their ups and downs, so I tend not to freak out about things, but word at the draft was Pesce is prepared to play out his final contracted season and see where things go.
But they have flexibility, ingenuity and a coach players love playing for. After their disappointing Eastern Conference Final sweep at the hands of Florida, the expectation is they are going to be aggressive. No one would be surprised if they pitch everyone from Tyler Bertuzzi to Vladimir Tarasenko to Dmitry Orlov to Blake Wheeler (who played for GM Don Waddell in Atlanta). They can offer more money on shorter term (say, for argument’s sake, 2x$6.5M for Orlov) until the cap goes up. Not sure where this all lands, but I’d be surprised if the Hurricanes don’t make news.
• One team that hoped to talk to Scott Mayfield believes he is all but re-signed by the Islanders. Hopefully, it will be announced before Christmas.
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• With Ryan Reaves turning down Minnesota, all eyes are on Toronto. They are believed to be ready to pitch Bertuzzi (a very hot commodity) and at least one defenceman, although all of this will take some gymnastics. Auston Matthews won’t be signed by July 1, but every expectation is he will by the start of the season. The number is going to look big when it’s signed, but will shrink as the cap grows. William Nylander won’t be done Saturday either, but everyone is trying to remain calm and not overreact.
• If not Toronto, Ryan O’Reilly’s been linked to Detroit, Montreal, Nashville and Vancouver. There’s probably more. However, some sources warned not to discount his desire for St. Louis until he actually signs somewhere else.
• Detroit and Nashville have also been linked to JT Compher. Again, there probably are more. People need centres.
• Detroit buying out Kailer Yamamoto with almost a bajillion dollars in cap room means Steve Yzerman is up to something. All eyes are on Alex Killorn, with Alex DeBrincat trade talks stalled.
• There are a number of them on several of the same teams’ radar: Florida, Edmonton, Vancouver and others looking for the proper depth fit. Those include Nick Bjugstad, Teddy Blueger, Evan Rodrigues and more.
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• I’m on the Connor Brown to Edmonton or Toronto train; no doubt others will try.
• Still think there’s a decent shot Ian Cole ends up in Vancouver, but it might be a one-year deal instead of multi-year. If a free agent defenceman gets term in Vancouver, it could be Carson Soucy.
• With Jonathan Quick headed to the Rangers, don’t be shocked if Cam Talbot ends up in Los Angeles.
• Another potential King is Trevor Lewis, a member of the organization from 2006-20.
• New Jersey is trying hard to keep Nathan Bastian, who was not qualified.
• Not expecting anything on Jonathan Toews right away, and even though Patrick Kane looks great on Instagram, he’s going to wait until closer to being ready to make a choice.
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