Has Georgia surpassed Alabama as the best program in college football?
Dan Wolken looks at if Georgia can now be considered the team to beat in college football.
USA TODAY
Until the past two seasons, the discussion about the Big 12 title race was about who was going to face Oklahoma in the championship game. However, it was Baylor and Kansas State taking home championships with the Sooners still being present, and TCU advanced to the College Football Playoff last season.
This is the final league campaign for Oklahoma and rival Texas before their departure to the SEC. But before then, four new teams are added to the Big 12 mix this season – Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston – creating a 14-team league that may be short on playoff contenders and big on competitive balance.
Who will emerge from this hodgepodge of old and new? Texas might be the favorite, though the Longhorns haven’t won the league since 2009. History says Oklahoma, which has won or shared the title 14 times in the 27-year history of the conference. Even if they’re the two favorites, the odds might be better taking the field given the unpredictability that should be the theme for 2023.
A look at where these teams stand and their one big question coming out of the spring:
1. Texas
Can the Longhorns finally put all the pieces together?
One question Texas answered this spring is who would be the starting quarterback. Steve Sarkisian confirmed Quinn Ewers as the winner of the competition, signaling both confidence in the incumbent and also providing a reality check for those thinking Arch Manning was a potential contender for meaningful time this fall. If Ewers is more consistent and defensive holes can be filled, Texas isn’t far off from winning the league and possibly contending for the College Football Playoff – but they have to stop losing close games.
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2. Kansas State
Is a repeat by the Wildcats in the offing?
It’s easily forgotten that it was the Wildcats who took home the Big 12 title when all the attention during the season was on TCU’s remarkable run. The catalyst for Kansas State was quarterback Will Howard, who made six starts in the second half and brought balance to the offense. Florida State running back transfer Treshaun Ward and a veteran returning offensive line should ease the loss of star Deuce Vaughn and make the Wildcats difficult to defend. The defense should again be solid with the help of some transfers.
3. Oklahoma
How do Sooners respond to first losing season of century?
Brent Venables brought enthusiasm and a more physical approach. The results didn’t follow and Oklahoma cratered after a 3-0 start. The bright side is that four losses were by three points. But for this team to get better the defense – Venables’ specialty – has to get better play from the secondary and force more turnovers. The offense should be in good shape with Dillon Gabriel back at quarterback and a young group of running backs and receivers ready to step up. The schedule is also manageable to keep the Sooners in contention if they avoid the errors that cost them games last year.
4. TCU
Where do the Horned Frogs go after last year’s historic run?
The answer is down. The question is how far. And that’s no slight on coach Sonny Dykes and his team. It’s the inevitable reality of losing so many key players off a team that had a magical season. But even with a step back, TCU is still in the mix to win the conference if things come together. It’s easy to forget Chandler Morris beat out Max Duggan last year and should be dynamic at quarterback. Transfers will help rebuild the running back and receiver rooms. One area that looks to be improved is the defense with linebacker Johnny Hodges and defensive back Josh Newton among the talented holdovers.
5. Texas Tech
Can the Red Raiders crack the Top 25 after last year’s success?
Joey McGuire didn’t have the sensational debut that Dykes had in his first season, but Texas Tech quietly had a great year with eight victories – its most since 2013 – that included defeats of Texas and Oklahoma. The combination of quarterback Tyler Shough and receiver Jerand Bradley could be one of the best in the conference. The defense also returns a majority of its starters and has experience. If they can keep the Red Raiders in games there’s an opportunity for a special season.
6. Baylor
Was last year’s defensive performance a blip or something more serious?
The Bears were expected to be in the mix for a second consecutive Big 12 title, however their season fell apart in November with four consecutive losses to finish with a losing record. The surprise was that it was the defense – typically a strength under coach Dave Aranda – that crumbled, falling from 10th in scoring to 69th. To address the issue, Matt Powledge was brought in as the new defensive coordinator, and his approach is to be more aggressive in coverage and pressure after Baylor was just eighth in the league with 24 sacks.
7. Central Florida
How much of the offense can John Rhys Plumlee carry?
Don’t expect much to change after last year when Plumlee threw for 2,586 yards and also was the leading rusher for the Knights with 862 yards on the ground. But some more support would be welcome if they want to be contenders. That could come from running back Demarkcus Bowman – a five-star recruit that has already had stops at Clemson and Florida.
8. Cincinnati
Is this much transition too much for the Bearcats?
Changing leagues and coaches isn’t exactly the blueprint for immediate success, but that’s the hand Cincinnati has been dealt with Luke Fickell – the architect of the Bearcats’ rise – leaving for Wisconsin. Enter new coach Scott Satterfield, who had mixed results at Louisville and will be dealing with some roster overhaul. Arizona State quarterback transfer Emory Jones looks to have supplanted returning starter Ben Bryant, who put his name in the transfer portal after the spring game. Lots of questions remain at some key areas – running back, receiver and defensive back. How easily new and old pieces fit together with an incoming staff remains a mystery until the fall.
9. Oklahoma State
Will anyone else leave through the transfer portal?
No program in the Big 12 has dealt with more upheaval than the Cowboys with the losses of several key players to the portal. The changes raise serious concerns about whether a five-game losing streak to conclude last season was just the start of a decline for a team that narrowly lost the Big 12 title game in 2021. Michigan transfer Alan Bowman, who previously started at Texas Tech, looks in line to be the starting quarterback with Garret Rangel as the backup. Bowman’s durability was an issue with the Red Raiders. On defense, there’s a lot of new faces and lots of unknowns.
10. Brigham Young
How do the Cougars handle returning to conference play?
The Cougars haven’t been in a league since leaving the Mountain West to go independent before the 2011 season. The freedom of scheduling without guaranteed league games allowed BYU to play a myriad of opponents throughout the country. This season, the Cougars have the opportunity to begin developing permanent rivals and also face Oklahoma and Texas in their final seasons in the Big 12. How the adjustment goes is uncertain. The Cougars bring in Pittsburgh transfer Kedon Slovis at quarterback and are revamping their defense after significant losses.
11. Houston
Can the Cougars bounce back from last year’s disappointment?
Houston was thought of as a potential College Football Playoff contender entering last season with most of its key pieces returning after 12 wins in 2021. Results didn’t meet expectations from the start, and the Cougars managed just eight wins. There is optimism the offense can be better with Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith the anticipated starter at quarterback and the return of receivers Matthew Golden and Samuel Brown.
12. Kansas
Are the Jayhawks trending up or down?
For the first half of the season, the biggest surprise story was seeing Kansas in the Top 25 and Lance Leipold touted as coach of the year. However, the Jayhawks finished with seven losses in their last eight games, partly due to an injury to starting quarterback Jalon Daniels. Points shouldn’t be the issue with Daniels back to full strength in the fall. The defense, though, has to get better after allowing at least 35 points in all seven losses and giving up more than 50 points three times. Fix that and another bowl trip could be achievable.
13. West Virginia
Can Neal Brown turn things around and save his job?
Brown ranks near the top of any list of coaches on the hot seat entering the 2023 season after going 22-25 in his first four seasons. Incoming offensive coordinator Graham Harrell is tasked with leading an offense that lost most of its receiver production. Garrett Greene and Nicco Marchiol are competing for the quarterback job with Greene having the upper hand in experience. The biggest concern is how to reverse the poor play of a defense that allowed almost 35 points per game and lost several key contributors.
14. Iowa State
Is Hunter Dekkers capable of leading this team back near the top of the league?
The rise of the Cyclones culminated in an appearance in the conference championship game in 2020 and an appearance in the top 10 of the preseason poll the following season. However, the program slipped with those expectations and regressed further when Dekkers took over as the starting quarterback last year. Iowa State averaged just more than 20 points per game, and he threw 14 interceptions. Improved play from him is vital or it could be another season without a bowl game and the once-promising tenure of Matt Campbell facing scrutiny.
