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This could be the most consequential rematch in US history – a president who portrays himself as the champion of democracy against a former president who routinely rejects election results.
Anyone fearing Donald Trump’s return and those who reject Joe Biden’s victory could agree that nothing less than the future of the republic is at stake if Biden and Trump are on the ballot in 2024. Biden explicitly made that case in his announcement video on Tuesday, saying “we still are” in a “battle for the soul of America.”
So why does it feel like an unwanted movie sequel – same actors, predictable new plot twist?
Biden has been a candidate on the national stage in five of the last ten presidential elections. His first and second presidential campaigns sputtered in Democratic primaries in 1988 and 2008. He ran as Barack Obama’s running mate in 2008 and 2012. After sitting out 2016, Biden returned on a mission to unseat Trump in 2020.
Now the oldest-ever president, he is asking voters to put him in the White House until after his 86th birthday.
Trump is already on his third straight election campaign. And let’s not forget he teased runs in 1988, when Biden launched his first failed bid, and also in 2000, when Trump left the GOP for a time, and in 2012, when he led the charge questioning, incorrectly, Obama’s citizenship.
Candidates who run three or more times don’t often successfully become president. One successful example is Ronald Reagan, who like Biden and Trump was technically a senior citizen when he took office. Reagan won his first term on his third try. He also overcame underwater first term approval ratings to win reelection.
In fact, at this point, a little over two years into their presidencies, Biden, Trump and Reagan were all hovering around 40% approval, according to data maintained by Gallup.
Both Biden and Trump are, for now, primed to stay on top for their parties. CNN’s Harry Enten looks at polling data to argue this could be the most “boring” presidential primary season ever. It’ll be boring not because it’s inconsequential, but because it currently lacks much excitement.
Enten notes that Biden has not yet drawn a serious challenger and Trump has routinely enjoyed a sizable lead over declared and likely challengers.
Explaining the current strength of Trump’s position in the GOP field, Enten points at national and early primary state polling and Trump’s growing quiver of endorsements:
ENTEN: For an example of someone polling like Trump is now and then losing the party nomination, you have to look at primaries involving an incumbent. Ted Kennedy lost the 1980 Democratic primary to President Jimmy Carter, despite easily leading him in polling at this point in the cycle.
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This time around, Trump already has over 60 endorsements from governors and members of Congress. Since 1980, candidates with comparable collections of gubernatorial and congressional endorsements at this point in the cycle have all gone on to win their parties’ nominations.
Those endorsements include a majority of the House delegation from Florida, Trump’s adoptive home state and also home to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has not officially launched a presidential campaign but is generally regarded as Trump’s top competition.
During a trip to Japan, DeSantis was asked about polls that show him trailing Trump.
“Well, I am not a candidate, so we’ll see if and when that changes,” DeSantis told reporters.
This is the dichotomy of US politics. Biden and Trump are in positions of strength in their respective primaries at the same time they generate very little excitement for the public at large.
Less than 40% of registered voters even say Biden deserves reelection in CNN polling from March. That means more than 60% of registered voters said he does not deserve reelection. It would be an extremely troubling figure for Biden supporters if Trump did not inspire equal frustration for a large portion of the country.
While a small majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters said in in March they would prefer the Democratic Party to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024, Biden has actually improved quite a bit on this question. Last summer it was three quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters who were hoping for an alternative. In the meantime, Democrats outperformed expectations and kept control of the US Senate after November’s midterm election. It’s also worth noting that most people who said they wanted to see a Biden alternative did not have a specific idea about who that alternative should be.
Trump, unlike Biden, does face serious challengers for the GOP primary. DeSantis has benefited from a large amount of media attention, but still consistently trails Trump in primary polling.
CNN’s Eric Bradner and Gregory Krieg write about the difficulty Republican candidates have faced gaining traction against Trump despite his legal problems and his potential weakness in a general election campaign.
From their report: Whether it’s a fear of alienating his core supporters or taking a social media drubbing, this new class of candidates – some officially in, others plotting their entry – has been careful in their remarks about Trump, largely steering clear of sharp criticism in favor of the occasional implicit jab, the kind that often fails to register with the average voter, or subtle indications of opposing policy views.
An exception to that rule of Republicans treading carefully around Trump is former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
“The reruns will be worse than the original show was,” Christie said of a Trump primary nomination during an appearance in New Hampshire last week.
Trump has also gained ground in recent surveys. Fewer than 40% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters wanted to see Trump nominated back in CNN’s December poll. By March, a slim majority in CNN’s poll said Trump should get the nod.
A more recent poll published Monday, from NBC News, suggests Trump’s indictment on criminal charges by the Manhattan DA doesn’t appear to have hurt him among Republicans. Among those who say they would vote in the Republican presidential primary next year, 46% say they would back Trump out of a list of seven possible candidates, 31% choose DeSantis, and 6% former Vice President Mike Pence. All other candidates tested were at 3% or less.
Winning a nomination is a far different thing than winning the presidential election, however. And majorities of Americans aren’t happy with either man – 60% of the population say in the NBC poll that Trump should not run. An even larger portion, 70%, say Biden should not run.
Thus, the latest edition of a presidential election featuring Biden or Trump, will frustrate most of the country even as it is shaping up to be the most likely possible scenario.
