Wall Street strategists have pared back allocations to stocks at a level not seen even during the worst of the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bank of America. That fear could be translating into a tremendous buying opportunity, if history is any guide. BofA’s “Sell-Side Indicator” shows that stocks are down to 52.7% as a share of investment portfolios. That’s lower than the 55%-58% range in late-2008 after Lehman Brothers fell, and the 53.1% share in March 2009, just as the S & P 500 hit a low before the longest bull market run in history. Professional investors that the bank surveys have greatly increased their allocations to fixed income as fear over another financial crisis, along with concerns over Fed rate hikes and a recession, grip markets. But when worry over stocks has run this high, it often means a rally ahead. “This quick, sharp decline in sentiment since 2021 argues that reasons to worry about stocks are well-aired and that a positive surprise is more likely than a negative surprise,” Savita Subramanian, BofA’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, said in a client note Monday. History shows that when the SSI is around its current level, expected price returns over the next 12 months are 16%. When the gauge has been this low or lower, returns have been positive 94% of the time, with a median 12-month return of 22%. Subramanian noted that while cash allocations have increased to 3.2%, that’s near an all-time low even though the firm thinks high cash yields offer a better deal than bonds. While the firm has been pessimistic about stocks in the short term, it still finds equities a preferable alternative over the long run. “We note that Wall Street recommended underweighting equities through the entire bull market of the 1980s and 1990s as well as the 2009 to 2020 bull,” Subramanian wrote.
