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How healthcare could decide control of Congress


Hunter Sego was at a Greencastle, Indiana, CVS recently when the 26-year-old graduate student did a double take: the cost of filling his insulin prescription and test strips totaled $1,800.

“He goes: ‘Mom, this cannot be right. We have insurance right?’ ” his mother, Kathy Sego, recalled. “And I go ‘Yeah that’s normal. Go ahead and pay for it.’”

The Segos have been struggling with the soaring cost of insulin and diabetic supplies since Hunter was first diagnosed at age seven – especially with a high deductible on their health insurance. Hunter, who calls the price “absolutely asinine,” is rationing his insulin use to stretch out his expensive supply.

So, when Kathy saw GOP lawmakers this summer block an effort to cap insulin costs for those on private insurance, the former registered Republican decided that was enough: she would vote Democratic this fall.

Hunter Sego, who has Type 1 diabetes, is currently rationing insulin due to its high cost.
Hunter Sego, who has Type 1 diabetes, is currently rationing insulin due to its high cost.
Michelle Pemberton/IndyStar

“I just don’t want to be so political, but this is not the Republican party that I grew up with,” she said. “If you’re a Republican and you’re going to vote for (lowering insulin costs) and I know you’re gonna vote for that – by gosh – I’ll vote for you.”

While polls suggest the economy, abortion and crime remain top of mind among many midterm voters, health care remains a motivating issue for some voters, like Sego. In several battleground states, the issue could help determine whether Republicans wrest back control of Congress or whether Democrats expand their narrow grip.

Democrats hold a commanding lead – 51%-27% – among voters who prioritize health care, according to a Pew Research Center survey released Thursday. The problem for the party in power is that other issues – inflation, the economy, gun violence, abortion, immigration, and climate change – all rank as higher concerns among midterm voters, a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey shows.

While inflation does dominate voter headspace, health care is still a top “second tier” issue to voters, said Bob Blendon, a professor of health policy and political analysis, emeritus, at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

It might be hard for most voters to isolate on the rising health care costs when the price of other daily necessities such as food, gas and utilities has skyrocketed in the past year. And when they do, it’s all about the effect on their bank accounts, Blendon said.

“They are not interested in long-term problems. They’re talking about high prices of doctor charges and pharmaceuticals,” he added. “Everything is very short term and that’s true about the health care cost issue. People are worried about paying their bills in an inflationary time.”

Democrats’ health care advantage might not save their majority

When Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act in August (a slimmed down version of Biden’s Build Back Better proposal), the White House touted the victories on health care:

  • As many as 7 million Medicare beneficiaries could see their prescription drug costs go down beginning in 2026 because of the provision allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug costs.
  • Pharmacy costs for some of the 50 million Americans with Medicare Part D will be capped at $2,000 per year. That would directly benefit about 1.4 million beneficiaries each year who pay above that amount.
  • Some 3.3 million Medicare beneficiaries with diabetes will benefit from a guarantee that their insulin costs are capped at $35 per month.
  • Approximately 13 million Americans will continue to save an average of $800 per year on health insurance premiums through the extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies.

The administration estimates an additional 3 million more Americans will have health insurance.

All of that might not matter, said Jarrett Lewis, a pollster at Public Opinion Strategies. 

It’s a lot harder to campaign on legislative victories such as the Inflation Reduction Act than obvious price differences at the grocery store and pump according to Lewis.

“It’s tough to sell legislative wins when there’s just so many other things going on right now,” said Lewis.

And relief from the IRA isn’t immediate: the insulin cap for Medicare patients won’t take effect until next year; the $2,000 cap on pharmacy costs doesn’t kick in until 2025, and Medicare won’t start negotiating lower drug costs until 2026.

Wendy Rzasa of Lebanon, New Hampshire
Wendy Rzasa of Lebanon, New Hampshire
Courtesy of Wendy Rzasa

Wendy Rzasa, 51 and an independent voter from West Lebanon, New Hampshire, isn’t buying what Democrats have to offer. 

Rzasa is suffering from long COVID after being diagnosed in January 2021.

“It got my heart, it got my lungs, it got my brain, my whole body,” said Rzasa. “I can give my dog her medicine and forget that I gave it to her. Two minutes later I don’t have a memory. I can’t read for more than 15-20 minutes.” 

She was a nurse but was let go because she can’t do direct patient care anymore. Now she pays monthly for COBRA costs to keep her health insurance from work. It costs her $874 a month – almost half of her $1874 disability check. And her COVID forces her to sleep with a CPAP machine that provides her oxygen, which only further raises her electricity bill costs.

Combined with rent costs, she can’t keep up. She’s going to food pantries now when she never had to before. 

She attributes her health costs to overall inflation – and blames the Democrats.

Rzasa plans to vote for Republican Don Bolduc in New Hampshire’s competitive Senate race. Republicans have been eager to flip incumbent Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan’s seat red on their road map to reclaiming the Senate majority.

“I vote either way. I voted Democrat before too,” Rzasa said. But after seeing two years of full Democratic control in Washington, she’s voting for Republicans to change things up. “The electric bill right now, it’s ridiculous.”

Races for governor also carry health care implications

The battle over health care isn’t being waged only on Capitol Hill.

When Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act in 2010, states were promised millions in federal aid to expand Medicaid programs for lower-income Americans. Most states took the federal government up on its offer but 12 mostly Republican-led ones have yet to do so, leaving more than 2 million Americans without coverage. (The dozen includes Wisconsin, which hasn’t expanded Medicaid but has no coverage gap since its current Medicaid program already covers all legally present residents with incomes under the poverty level.)

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