FiveThirtyEight: “In your typical midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president, you’d expect Republicans to be flying high. But the evidence is mounting that the national political environment right now actually leans toward Democrats.”
“Up until mid-June, special elections for the U.S. House during the Biden presidency were pointing to a national political environment that was neutral or a little bit Republican-leaning. On average, Republicans did 2 points better in those elections than you’d expect based on the districts’ FiveThirtyEight partisan leans.”
“That all changed, though, starting in late June — immediately after the Supreme Court issued its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson, overturning the constitutional right to abortion. There have been four first-past-the-post special House elections since that decision, and Democrats have outperformed their expected margins in those elections by an average of 9 points.”
