Caterpillar shares could be held in check in the near term, Bernstein said in a note Wednesday. Analyst Chad Dillard downgraded the heavy equipment maker to market perform from outperform, saying that Caterpillar has become “too reliant” on pricing-driven growth. “With shares outperforming the broader market by ~5% YTD and a risk/reward of 1:1 at the current share price, we find it hard to put an incremental dollar of capital to work in this stock right now,” he wrote. The downgrade from Bernstein comes after the industrial giant missed revenue estimates in the second quarter , noting that its exit from Russia and supply chain issues hurt its earnings. Dillard also believes market demand for Caterpillar is poised to fall as demand weakens, and, like many other original equipment makers, the company has become too reliant on revenue growth driven by pricing, which is beginning to slow. “A Fed fighting to bring inflation under control and an OEM pushing evermore price are two diametrically opposing outcomes that cannot coexist for long,” he said. “CAT is more likely to blink. The problem, however, is that whenever CAT’s price growth rolls over, so does its volume growth.” Against this backdrop, Dillard also said that Street estimates for the company are too high and need to come down, and revised Bernstein’s expectations going forward. For 2023 the firm expects EPS of $11.75, compared to consensus expectations of $14.03. Shares of Caterpillar have plummeted more than 11% this year and 7.4% this month. Bernstein trimmed its price target to $195 share, which implies a more than 6% potential upside from Tuesday’s close. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting
