The conventional wisdom that Republicans will do well in the midterms hasn’t always been borne out in the polling numbers, which have shown Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races around the country. That discrepancy can also be seen in the relatively large gap between FiveThirtyEight’s Lite and Deluxe midterm forecasts.
In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of this and answer listener questions about the forecast model. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much President Biden’s success in a potential 2024 primary election hangs on Democrats’ performance at the midterms.
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