The NFL playoffs are here, and it’s kicking off with wild-card weekend.
The round begins with the Los Angeles Chargers on the road against the Houston Texans and ends with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Minnesota Vikings.
This weekend, we’ll see several regular-season rematches, including the third meeting between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Below, you’ll find my picks against the spread and for the over/under using lines from the BetMGM online sportsbook.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
The main storyline to watch is the edge rushers against the tackles of each team. In this matchup, I’m siding with the Chargers’ Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack against Texans’ tackles Laremy Tunsil and Blake Fisher. Fisher is in over his head. In 219 pass-blocking snaps, he’s allowed four sacks, including two over the last two games. Bosa and Mack have combined for 83 pressures.
SPREAD PICK: Chargers -3 (-110)
Examining the over/under, I’ll lean under slightly with a final score of 21-17. Both teams have formidable defences. The Chargers allow the fewest points per game at 17.7, while the Texans are 14th at 21.9. The Texans head into this game with limited skill position players, as Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are out for the season. Look for both teams to try to run the ball and lean on their respective defences.
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 42.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
This game is where I will defy statistical logic, hold my breath, and take the Steelers at +9.5. The Steelers have looked terrible lately, but this is the season’s third matchup between the squads. In the first matchup, the Steelers won 18-16. In the second game, it was tied 17-17 with 1:50 left in the third quarter before the Ravens pulled away and won 34-17. Pittsburgh will find a way to be competitive, perhaps using Justin Fields.
SPREAD PICK: Steelers +9.5 (-110)
I’m taking the over with the line at 43.5. The Ravens are averaging more than 30 points per game, and that’s up to 33.3 over their last three. The Steelers will find a way to stay competitive and within 10 points. As mentioned, don’t be shocked to see Fields come out in the second half if they’re trailing. Ravens win, 28-20.
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 43.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
This is going to be another knock-down-drag-out game, with both teams emphasizing running the ball. The Broncos have a defence that must be respected. They lead the NFL with 63 sacks. The battle between Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins and Broncos’ edge rushers will be fun to watch, but look for John Franklin-Myers (53 pressures, seven sacks) to exploit the Bills interior enough to keep up the pressure.
SPREAD PICK: Broncos +9 (-110)
This total seems high for these two teams. Both quarterbacks are playing well, but the Broncos want to establish the run and air it out to Marvin Mims when the time is right. As for the Bills, they’re a top-10 rushing attack with 28 touchdowns between Josh Allen and James Cook. Bills win, 24-17.
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 47 (-110)
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
It’s still unclear if Jalen Hurts will suit up, but given that the Eagles recently cut a QB, this signals he’ll be good to go with Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee behind him. As for the Packers, there are simply too many injuries, including wide receiver and notable deep threat Christian Watson. In Week 18, QB Jordan Love injured his throwing arm. The Eagles win this one by a touchdown.
SPREAD PICK: Eagles -4.5 (-110)
I’m going to lean under. The Packers are without their best deep threat, and Love has had some success with the deep ball, throwing six touchdowns to only two picks. The Eagles, especially with Hurts missing two games with a concussion, will likely rely on a rested Saquon Barkley to take over this game. I don’t trust this Packers offence right now.
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 45.5 (-110)
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game is set up for the Buccaneers to run the ball more while the Commanders air it out. The Commanders allow just 189.5 passing yards (third) and 137.5 rushing yards (30th) per game. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers allow 243.9 passing yards (29th) per game. There’s such a stark contrast between the strengths and weaknesses of these teams, and I’ll side with the team that I think will have more success through the air.
SPREAD PICK: Commanders +3 (-115)
This game has the highest total for the weekend, and I’ll take the under. Since their Week 14 bye, the Commanders haven’t allowed any QB to have double-digit touchdown passes. Their offence is a bit one-dimensional, with no running game other than rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels. Buccaneers win, 23-21.
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 50.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
There’s no denying that Vikings QB Sam Darnold looked atrocious in Week 18, and I understand there are question marks heading into the playoffs, but I trust this defence. The Rams beat the Vikings earlier this season. In that game, the Vikings didn’t record a sack against Rams QB Matthew Stafford. When pressured, Stafford has six interceptions and 13 turnover-worthy plays. Look for Vikings defensive co-ordinator Brian Flores to emphasize that in this game.
SPREAD PICK: Vikings -1 (-105)
I’ve been hesitant with expecting shootouts this weekend, but this is the game that’ll deliver. The Vikings average 1.41 interceptions per game but allow 242 passing yards (fifth). Meanwhile, the Rams allow 130 rushing yards (11th) and 223.1 passing yards (13th) per game. I don’t trust the coverage units of either team to pin down the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson or the Rams’ Puka Nacua.
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 48 (-105)
