It was assumed that the Capitals, who were swept out of the first round by the New York Rangers, would fall back down the standings this season. Instead, they have been the NHL’s biggest surprise. Washington entered the holiday break with the third-best points percentage in the league (.706).
Let’s look under the hood to find out what has inspired the Capitals’ unexpected success and which elements are sustainable:
Ovechkin’s pursuit of history
Alex Ovechkin burst out of the gate with 15 goals in his first 18 games, closing to within 26 goals of Wayne Gretzky’s record. A fractured left fibula, however, forced Ovechkin to hit pause on the chase last month. (Ovechkin could return Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs.)
Washington’s offence has dried up a bit without Ovechkin, who was shooting a career-high 23.8 per cent at the time of his injury. The whole team got in on the act, scoring at least five goals in nine of its first 18 games.
Over the past 16 games, the drop-off has been most pronounced at 5-on-5, where the Capitals are shooting 7.3 per cent. That is down from 14.8 per cent over the first 18 games.
Washington’s power play operates much differently without Ovechkin bombing one-timers from the left circle. Shot attempts have been more evenly dispersed, and 56.4 per cent have come from the slot — up from 45.5 per cent with Ovechkin in the lineup. Ten of the Capitals’ past 13 power-play goals have been scored in the slot, led by Wilson’s four. (Ovechkin accounted for four of the team’s nine goals and 49 of its 151 shot attempts on the power play through 18 games.)
It will be interesting to see what happens to the Capitals’ power play once Ovechkin returns.
Dubois’ bounce-back season
Pierre-Luc Dubois’ reputation took a hit over the summer when the Los Angeles Kings traded him less than one year after he signed an eight-year contract with the club.
Now on his fourth team in eight seasons, Dubois has 21 assists and 26 points in 34 games, including a team-leading 14 points in 16 Ovechkin-less games. (He had 40 points in 82 games last season.)
Dubois has helped the Capitals generate 58.1 per cent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 during his minutes, playing mostly alongside McMichael and Wilson. Actual goals are 29-18 (61.7 per cent) in favour of Washington with Dubois on the ice.
“He’s had a fantastic start to the year and been a huge part of why we’ve been successful,” Carbery told reporters recently.
Dubois’ playmaking ability has been on display. He is completing 1.76 passes to the slot per 20 minutes at 5-on-5 — 25th out of 428 forwards who have played at least 100 minutes in that situation.
After spending most of his time in Los Angeles in a bottom-six role, Dubois appears reinvigorated as Washington’s second-line centre.
“It just feels natural,” Dubois told NHL.com. “It feels like I’m asked to do a job that I know that I can do.”
Surprisingly, the Capitals will have zero representation in the 4 Nations Face-Off in February. Logan Thompson certainly has a bone to pick with Team Canada’s management group after being left off the roster. Thompson leads all Canadian goaltenders this season in goals saved above expected and ranks sixth overall.
In fact, Thompson’s GSAE (12.8) is virtually the same as Team Canada’s three goaltenders — Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault — combined (12.93).
Thompson has recorded a positive GSAE in 14 of his 17 starts. His 82.4 quality-start percentage is tied with Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz for the league lead. Backup Charlie Lindgren has been solid as well, saving 3.5 goals above expected in 17 starts. (As a tandem, Thompson and Lindgren’s combined 16.3 GSAE is sixth best in the league.)
It was unlikely that the Capitals would maintain their torrid scoring pace over an entire season, but their foundation seems sturdy. Because of their strong start, they probably have banked enough points to withstand any potential rough patches.
