A tougher electric vehicle outlook in 2025 is leading Baird to step to the sidelines on Rivian . The firm downgraded shares of the EV startup to neutral from outperform and cut its price target by $2 to $16, which still implies nearly 9% upside from Tuesday’s close. This comes as the stock has gained about 46% in the past month. RIVN 1M mountain RIVN, 1-month In November, the company received a conditional commitment for a loan up to $6.6 billion from the Department of Energy to support the construction of its new EV manufacturing facility in Georgia. Not only that, Volkswagen increased its investment in the company to $5.8 billion for its joint venture supplying next-generation electrical architecture and software for EVs . “With the Volkswagen JV having recently closed and DOE funding announcement (a positive surprise) in the rearview, we see few catalysts in 2025 and expect shares to languish with EV sales, which may be sluggish relative to expectations,” analyst Ben Kallo told clients Wednesday. “We remain positive on RIVN’s product/brand and the long-term opportunity which remains intact.” On top of a lack of catalysts for growth next year, the analyst noted a couple headwinds in the space more broadly heading into next year. That includes anticipated policy changes under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration that may threaten existing measures – such as tax credits – meant to encourage new EV purchases. “While there are several exceptions, we see the landscape for both EVs (inclusive of supply chain) and Renewables as more challenging in the near future due to uncertainty regarding the [Inflation Reduction Act] and growth in 2025,” Kallo added. To be sure, Wall Street is split on Rivian, as 15 out of the 30 total analysts covering it have a strong buy or buy rating, per LSEG data. However, its average target of $15.11 also implies more gains ahead, reflecting upside potential of nearly 3%. Shares were more than 1% lower in the premarket Wednesday on the heels of the call. The stock has also fallen more than 37% year to date.
