Charlie Cook: “Self-proclaiming a mandate is a cardinal sin in politics; anyone thinking that voters gave Trump a mandate on Nov. 5 is sadly mistaken. Democrats are understandably shaken and disappointed by Vice President Kamala Harris’s loss, but Trump’s sweep of all seven swing states was hardly a landslide. His victories of 0.9 points in Wisconsin, 1.4 points in Michigan, 1.75 in Pennsylvania, 2.19 in Georgia, 3.1 in Nevada, and 3.32 in North Carolina were impressive yet still within the margin of error for most polls. Only his 5.54-point win in Arizona was worth a raised eyebrow.”
“Given how few Democrats ended up having problems beneath the presidential race on the ballot, it is clear that the election was a highly focused, targeted repudiation of the Biden-Harris administration. Republicans seem likely to emerge from this election with about 221 or 222 seats in the House, effectively identical to the 221 they held going in, with five seats yet to be decided.”
“In the Senate, while Democrats did lose their majority, three of their four losses were in states that Trump carried in 2016, 2020, and 2024, making it easy to conclude that God doesn’t intend for Democrats to occupy seats in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia at this point in time. The fourth came in the decidedly purple state of Pennsylvania.”
