Nate Cohn: “Many of this cycle’s surprising shifts were foreshadowed in the midterms.”
“The national popular vote for president in 2024 will look eerily similar to the popular vote for U.S. House in 2022. The winner by state will be exactly the same — at least if you take the combined Republican vote in Alaska in 2022. And many of the details will be similar as well, like Republicans’ big gains in Florida and New York.”
“As a result, the 2024 presidential election results by state correlate more closely with the swings from the 2022 midterm election in the U.S. House than with the result of the 2020 presidential election.”
“This is not what anyone would have expected two years ago. Usually, midterms don’t foreshadow the next presidential election.”
