The re-election of Donald Trump to the White House is focusing minds in Europe, and with dozens of leaders meeting in Budapest, they have the perfect chance to talk it through.
Trump’s first term in office saw a dramatic souring of relations. He was angry European countries didn’t pay more towards their own security.
He was livid about the US trade deficit with Europe. And he seemed particularly irate with EU big power Germany on both those counts. Just ask German ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
So what will the future Trump presidency mean for the continent? And in particular, for Ukraine?
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky is in the Hungarian capital for a meeting of the European Political Community. It was the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron – launched following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a talking-shop to jointly tackle continental challenges.
The fear here is that the new US administration will slow, if not stop, the flow of American military aid to Kyiv. The US has been the largest single donor to Ukraine. By far. And Europe will struggle to take up the slack.
Trump boasted in the past he could end the war with Russia in a day. What isn’t clear is whether he wants Ukraine to win.
Europe’s leaders, notably UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have repeatedly pledged to stand by Ukraine.
Zelensky will appeal to them on Thursday to stay true to their word.
Things look challenging for Kyiv, to say the least.
Not only is the future of US military aid now insecure, there’s a question mark too over Ukraine’s second largest donor, Germany. Its three-party coalition government crumbled late on Wednesday.
On top of all this, the host of Thursday’s meeting is none other than Hungary’s Trump-enthusiastic Prime Minister, Viktor Orban. Also well-known for his close ties to Moscow, his reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia and to provide self-defence weapons to Ukraine.
He has repeatedly called on the EU to demand an “unconditional and immediate ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia: going against the insistence among Ukraine’s Western allies to date that Kyiv should dictate its own terms.
Orban describes Trump as being in what he calls his “pro-peace” camp.
All that said, President Zelensky and others in Budapest this Thursday hope to maintain friendly relations with the new Trump administration for as long as possible.
The mainly gushing congratulatory messages from Europe’s leaders on social media made that abundantly clear. But Trump will know that most of them favoured his Democrat rival for the presidency, Kamala Harris.
The US electoral race was always predicted to be tight, and EU officials insist they are better prepared for Trump 2.0 than in 2016, when they were taken by surprise.
But Trump’s isolationism still worries Europe deeply.
The continent looks to the US for security. It has done so since the end of World War Two. It seeks protection from Russian expansionism and help in defending Ukraine. Problem is: Trump is no fan (and that’s putting it politely) of Nato, the transatlantic military alliance.
Trade is another concern, especially for the EU.
The US is its biggest trade partner. But Trump is protectionist. He loves slapping tariffs on imports, he says.
This is bad news for Europe’s already sluggish economies. Like export-reliant Germany, with its ailing automobile industry. The European Commission says it’s ready, if needs be, with retaliatory measures, but would rather avoid marching down the trade war path with Trump.
Unity is another niggle. Trump, with his America First policy, not unlike Russia’s Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping of China, who push their own nationalist agendas on the world stage, would prefer not to face off against a strong, united Europe. Divide and rule is their preference.
Viktor Orban is not the only huge Trump fan here. So is Slovakia’s prime minister, and, to an extent, Italy’s premier too. They lean towards Trump in a way that divides them from most of the rest.
Brussels frets about other EU member states now potentially rushing to secure good bilateral relations with Trump at the expense of unity. Leaving the bloc weaker.
But an EU diplomat I spoke to, who asked not to be named in order to speak freely, believes the opposite could also be true.
“We in Brussels angst-ed about Brexit at the time,” he told me.
“We thought other member states would follow the UK out the EU door. But the reverse happened. EU countries melded together more through the Brexit process. Donald Trump might have the same effect on us. Drive us closer together. Force us to be more self-reliant.”
Just before US election day, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, himself a former big figure in Brussels proclaimed on X: “The future of Europe no longer depends on presidential elections in the US, but primarily on Europe itself.”
Maybe. Or maybe not.
Another, rather scared school of thought amongst traditional politicians in Europe is that this victory for Trump could prove a boost for right-wing nationalists far closer to home.
European populists who share his belief that they are the true voice of voters: upset about the economy, about immigration, about the state of their respective countries and demanding change now.
