Semafor: “There’s less incentive to get involved thanks to a more sophisticated polling audience and greater costs of failure.”
“We’re now well over a decade into the era of the star election forecaster, led by Nate Silver and his rivals and proteges. His biggest influence may be teaching most news junkies to turn to curated averages of polls rather than fret over each one.”
“This has created a bit of a Heisenberg effect, in which observing something — in this case, that the best analysis comes from mixing together lots of polls with a sophisticated model —might actually change it. What’s the point of shelling out five-figures on a horse race poll if it’s just going to get tossed into an average by an audience trained to scoff at individual surveys?”
