A new study by the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that Donald Trump’s plans for Social Security would drive the program toward insolvency and cut benefits by 33%.
In fact, we find President Trump’s campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances.
President Trump’s proposals to eliminate taxation of Social Security benefits, end taxes on tips and overtime, impose tariffs, and expand deportations would all widen Social Security’s cash deficits. Under our central estimate, we find that President Trump’s agenda would:
Increase Social Security’s ten-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion through FY 2035.
Advance insolvency by three years, from FY 2034 to FY 2031 – hastening the next President’s insolvency timeline by one-third.
Lead to a 33 percent across-the-board benefit cut in 2035, up from the 23 percent CBO projects under current law.
Increase Social Security’s annual shortfall by roughly 50 percent in FY 2035, from 3.6 to 4 percent of payroll.
Require the equivalent of reducing current law benefits by about one-third or increasing revenue by about one-half to restore 75-year solvency.
The political game of this benefits cuts can be fixed and avoided later is popular among Republicans, but they never seem to get around to actually fixing the problem.
Trump’s ideas wouldn’t save Social Security. They would put the beloved program on a path to doom. Republicans have long dreamed of raiding the Social Security trust fund and privatizing the program.
When Trump says he is going to save Social Security what he actually means is that he is going to kill it by starving it of revenue.
The numbers show that won’t save Social Security. He will kill it.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
