Nate Cohn: “Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied — with neither candidate ahead by even a single point — in The New York Times’s polling average of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina.”
“In North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, neither candidate even ‘leads’ by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Neither can realistically win the presidency without winning at least one of these states.”
“With the polls so tight, the term ‘leads’ really does need to be in quotation marks. Yes, the difference between ‘leading’ or ‘trailing’ by 0.2 points might feel very significant. After all, it looks like the difference between whether a candidate is winning or losing. The election, however, is not decided by the polls; it’s decided by the voters. As a consequence, a lead or deficit of 0.2 points in a polling average is not the difference between whether a candidate is winning or losing, even though it may feel like it.”
“The polls simply are not precise enough for a 0.2-point edge to convey any meaningful information.”
