If you haven’t noticed beautiful skies in your own backyard, you’ve almost surely seen friends sharing their images of them on social media. The northern lights, or aurora borealis, have been a near-weekly occurrence in recent months. Back in May, aurora borealis lit up the skies for nearly a week straight, and in October, another wave hit that was visible to nearly half of the US. It turns out that there is a reason why the northern lights have become so common in 2024, and, according to NASA, the pattern will continue well into 2025 and potentially 2026 as well.
The space agency hosted a teleconference on Oct. 15 to formally announce that the sun was at the peak of its 11-year cycle, also known as the solar maximum, and to explain what people can expect now that it’s here.
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“We are currently in the period of the 11-year solar cycle known as solar maximum,” said Elsayed Talaat, director of the Office of Space Weather Observations at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “During this time, we expect to see more sunspots, and therefore there’s a higher chance of high-impact space weather occurring on any given day.”
In other words, NASA and NOAA expect the sun to generate more sunspots and more coronal mass ejections similar to the ones that have happened this year, and potentially more like the ones seen in May and October, where aurora borealis reached down much farther than is typical.
NASA says that this cycle — known as Solar Cycle 25 — began in Dec. 2019 and the sun has ramped up its activity every year since then. Since Solar Cycle 25 is a smaller cycle, NOAA and NASA believe that the solar maximum will last longer than normal, which means more auroras for everyone for quite a while longer.
The sun is much more active during its solar maximum, causing more space weather events like solar flares, which causes the aurora borealis.
“Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be a relatively small cycle but slightly larger than Cycle 24,” said Lisa Upton, co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. “This means that we can expect the maximum phase to be on the longer side, roughly three to four years long. Currently, we’re about two years into the maximum period, so we are anticipating another year or so of maximum phase before we enter the declining phase.
Expect more solar flares and more auroras
This all happens because the sun goes through an 11-year cycle. These cycles culminate with the solar poles flipping. Imagine if the North and South Poles flipped on Earth, which is something that actually may happen one day, and you have a general idea of what’s happening to our nearest star right now. The transition causes the sun to become much more active, which leads to more solar flares and coronal mass ejections.
Once those flares and ejections hit Earth, they interact with the planet’s geomagnetic field and cause the spectacular sight we know as the northern lights. There is always a little bit of solar radiation hitting Earth, so the northern lights are always around near the North Pole. However, when larger solar flares and ejections hit the Earth, it has a greater effect that not only makes aurora borealis stronger but also pushes it farther away from the North Pole, allowing people in other parts of the world to see it.
Thus, while the sun remains at its maximum, it’ll continue cause more instances of the aurora borealis pushing its way south. It’s unclear if Earth will experience another geomagnetic storm like it did in May and October, or exactly when the solar maximum will end. NASA and NOAA say that it’ll be months after the maximum is over before everything will be calculated. Until then, get those phones ready because the northern lights could come back at any time or on any day for the next one to two years.
