Bitcoin rallied on Thursday, but if trading this year is any guide, this pop will be one to fade. On the fundamental side, investors have had lots of seemingly positive developments to hang their hopes on. But looking at the bitcoin chart, it’s been six months since the flagship cryptocurrency hit its record above $73,000 It’s in a listless pattern, drifting to lower and lower highs. Bitcoin has had a lot going for it in that time — stocks have been climbing to new highs, both U.S. presidential candidates have made positive statements about crypto, and the Federal Reserve just cut interest rates — but those things have yet to show up in its price. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin, YTD “If you had told us in March that the S & P would be north of $5700, we would have assumed BTC would be flirting with $100,000,” Wolfe Research’s Rob Ginsberg said in a note Wednesday. “Instead it has been just the opposite … It would be fair to say that while the market has climbed to new highs, crypto has been in a bear market since March.” Bitcoin is down 13% from its March 13 record and ether has tumbled 34% in the same period. On the flipside, the S & P 500 has climbed 11% in that time, and gold is up 22%. With a year-to-date gain of 50%, bitcoin is considered to be in a bull cycle that began in March 2023. The most recent Bitcoin halving took place in April, and the post-halving highs historically don’t come until about 18 months after the supply cutting event . Between the popularity of bitcoin ETFs that launched in January, the slowing of the bitcoin supply and a slew of other macro and micro catalysts, many traders are holding out for a price surge. Ginsberg is doubtful, however. “We have discussed the defensive risk off environment ad nauseam, and this is just another indication of that lack of willingness to invest highly speculative assets,” he said. “Even with favorable [Securities and Exchange Commission] rulings, institutional adoption, and now rate cuts, it seems as though nothing is enough to propel bitcoin on that next leg higher,” he said. To be sure, the cryptocurrency could still benefit from seasonal upside in the fourth quarter. October and November are bitcoin’s best months on average, and investors expect a lot of uncertainty to be settled after the November election . “Until meaningful breakouts play out and downtrends reverse, we will remain in the camp of fading bounces,” Ginsberg said.
