GM’s EV sales momentum is finally building

WARREN, Mich. – If everything had gone to plan for General Motors over the last three years, the Detroit automaker would be well on its way to catching Tesla in sales of electric vehicles.

In October 2021, GM CEO Mary Barra declared the automaker would “absolutely” catch up to the U.S. EV leader by 2025. Instead, after slower-than-anticipated EV adoption across the industry and GM-specific challenges with production, software and supply chains, the company remains well behind Elon Musk‘s carmaker, as well as Hyundai Motor/Kia and Ford Motor.

While GM has withdrawn most of its previously announced electric vehicle targets, the automaker believes its EV sales momentum is finally building thanks to an expanding lineup of all-electric vehicles – spanning a price range of roughly $35,000 to more than $300,000.

“We are definitely outstripping the industry in terms of growth, in terms of EVs,” Rory Harvey, GM president of global markets, including North America, told CNBC. “We have the most comprehensive EV lineup out of any manufacturer in the industry, in the U.S., at the moment.”

EV sales data provided to CNBC by the Detroit automaker, which publicly reports sales quarterly, shows a notable increase for GM through August. GM sold nearly 21,000 EVs in the U.S. in July and August – almost matching its full second-quarter EV sales. GM’s EV sales through August were up about 70% compared with a year earlier.

“It’s a step change in terms of our EV performance,” Harvey said during an interview this month at GM’s Cadillac headquarters in suburban Detroit.

Those two back-to-back record months for GM’s EVs have it within striking distance – about 2,000 units – of Ford through August. It still remained more than 20,000 units shy of Hyundai/Kia EV sales through last month. Both Ford and Hyundai/Kia report sales monthly.

The legacy automakers are still fighting for a distant second behind Tesla, which Motor Intelligence estimates to have sold more than 164,000 EVs during the second quarter – roughly double the sales of GM, Hyundai/Kia and Ford combined during that time.     

Harvey declined to speculate when, or if, GM expects to overtake its competitors in EV sales, but the automaker is forecasting a strong finish to the end of the year.

“We have momentum on our side,” Harvey said. “We anticipate quarter four will be strong in terms of EV adoption. So, we’re looking forward to that close, and looking forward to taking a disproportionate share of the upside.”

They range from mainstream models such as the Chevy Equinox and Blazer crossovers to three large pickup trucks and luxury models from Cadillac, including a bespoke $300,000 Celestiq. Two additional Cadillac vehicles – an electric Escalade and entry-level Optiq crossover – are expected to join the lineup by year’s end, bringing the total to an industry-leading 10.

“They’re doing what they said they were going to do. Their plan was to have Ultium and have it underneath a lot of cars relatively quickly,” said Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst at S&P Global. “It didn’t come online quite as fast as they wanted it to. But this was the plan.”

For comparison, Tesla’s five vehicles range from the roughly $39,000 Model 3 sedan to the more than $100,000 Cybertruck. Hyundai, including its Genesis luxury brand and Kia sibling, has a lineup of nine cars and crossovers ranging from about $34,000 for the Hyundai Kona electric to $80,000 for the Genesis G80.

With so many GM models, the expectations to increase sales are high. The automaker has spent billions of dollars to develop the vehicles, and now “the pressure is on to sell them,” Brinley said.

“The pressure is on to be able to guide consumer demand and meet it,” she said. “But this is a 10- to 15-year thing to get to a place where EVs are going to be more dominant than [internal combustion engines], and it can still take time for consumers to warm up.”

Cox Automotive expects EVs to make up roughly 10% of overall U.S. vehicle sales by the end of the year, up from 7.3% in the first quarter.

Selling more EVs is still somewhat counterintuitive for GM: They remain far less profitable than other gas-powered models, but the automaker expects EVs to be profitable on a production, or contribution-margin basis, once it reaches output of 200,000 units by the fourth quarter.

EVs, which also help the company to meet tightening federal fuel economy standards, have been a major growth area under Barra. The CEO has yet to fully withdraw a target announced in January 2021 that the automaker would exclusively offer all-electric vehicles for consumers by 2035.

Harvey told CNBC the automaker is “doing a terrific amount now in terms of roadshow events, in terms of getting customers into our vehicles, making sure that our fleets at our dealerships have the right level of EVs.”

“In the U.S., you say, ‘Butts in the seat sells cars,’ in the U.K., we say, ‘Feel at the wheel, seals the deal,” said Harvey, a U.K. native. “But it’s the same thing.”

The 2035 target, which Barra has said will be guided by customer demand, was a transformational goal for GM. The Detroit automaker was the first legacy carmaker to go “all in” on EVs and reshaped its business to focus on the vehicles, including announcing several other targets that have since been withdrawn or adjusted.

Withdrawn targets for 2025 include North American production capacity of 1 million EVs and EV profits comparable to gas models. The status of other targets, such as revenue of $50 billion from all-electric vehicles by next year, is unclear.

GM maintains a nearer-term target of producing between 200,000 and 250,000 EVs this year, a range that was revised downward from a previously announced goal of 200,000 to 300,000.

Harvey said the company will continue to be guided by customer demand for EVs.

“You have to plan a number of years ahead in terms of what you’re going to do,” Harvey said. “If you reach some peaks and drops as you go through, then we have the ability to either increase production or to slightly detune production, so that we can meet the customer demand. I don’t think we’ve overinvested in EVs.”