Volatility was the name of the game as markets entered the second half of the year, with stocks going through wild swings since July. The U.S. Federal Reserve made its first cut in four years — and more are expected to come. Some are also calling for investors to move out of cash with rates expected to drop. If you had as much as a spare $1 million to invest right now, what should you buy? CNBC Pro asked veteran investors how they would allocate their portfolios with that money. They shared tips for investors with three levels of risk appetite. Cautious-to-balanced risk profile Paul Gambles, managing partner of MBMG Family Office Group, said the firm recently tweaked its allocation for investors with a cautious-to-balanced risk profile to the following: He said that gold miners got a much higher allocation of above 10% at one stage but they have sold it “aggressively” recently as “the rally has been too strong to ignore.” Other changes the firm made included a reduced allocation to Japanese government bonds and an increased position in China Treasurys. “Treasuries – duration remains a screaming buy,” he told CNBC Pro via email. “JGBs – buying an unhedged USD denominated ETF always seems easier and to work out cheaper than buying Yen – where the FX spreads always seem higher than they should be.” This portfolio has had a roughly 10% year-to-date return, according to Gambles. Balanced-to-medium risk profile With as much as $1 million to invest with, investors can buy individual securities instead of being restricted to funds, said David Dietze, managing principal and senior portfolio strategist at Peapack Private Wealth Management. The firm has $11.5 billion assets under management. “A much smaller amount leaves an investor forced to invest in funds to get adequate diversification. With one million, one could say invest $20K in fifty different stocks and be well diversified,” he said. Fund fees are one reason to opt for individual stocks instead of funds, as they’re “said by many to be the biggest determinative of the long term success of your portfolio,” said Dietze. With $1 million, Dietze said, he still likes to strike a balance between stocks, bonds and cash, preferring a traditional allocation: 65% to stocks, 30% to fixed income and 5% to cash. “We would still tilt the stocks to large cap domestic, but an allocation to small cap and overseas stocks makes sense in light of the better valuations present in those two categories,” he said. In terms of fixed income, investors should go for high quality and bonds that have shorter maturities, he said. This portfolio is for a multi-year allocation, as he advises investors not to “game the near term outlook” for the market. Stocks that Dietze likes right now include pharmaceutical firm Bristol Myers , Australian miner BHP Group and Hershey . Here’s what he said about each: Bristol Myers is “inherently undervalued,” and will benefit from the market moving from its “fixation on AI” to high-dividend sectors. The stock now offers a dividend yield of around 4.8%. BHP, the largest miner globally, has low debt and high profitability, and is a great hedge on inflation. Hershey is a “long term outperformer” with total returns of 14% per annum over the last decade. More aggressive risk profile Gambles says that taking on a more aggressive stance would mean an “all in commitment” on the themes he expects will perform, and removing any hedges against those trades. As his clients move to a more aggressive portfolio, he would allocate this way: In contrast to the portfolio for cautious-to-balanced investors, Gambles has reduced allocation to the global equity hedge funds and increased it for the Asian counterparts. He maintained the allocation for U.S. Treasurys while doubling the Japanese government bonds. “I think that the most interesting aspect for many readers would be 60% allocation to various treasuries in an aggressive portfolio – but when things turn negative then aggressive can mean aggressively defensive,” he wrote in an email. From a theoretical perspective, he would hedge excessive Treasury exposure with a 5% allocation to bitcoin, he said. Gambles would additionally allocate 10% for any trades he’s bullish on at the moment, including short-term tactical allocations. “There’s nothing that compelling out there right now … we’d keep most of that powder dry and wait for something to happen that creates a mispricing,” said Gambles. This portfolio allocation runs up to 110% as Gambles explained that every time there’s a tactical opportunity, the firm would buy using the portfolio’s margin to avoid selling any strategic holdings, with 10% used for that as a maximum. “We’d only deploy some/all of that when opportunities are clear and evident,” he said.
