Nate Silver: “In 16 years of running election forecasts, I’ve never seen such a close election.”
“Our polling averages in seven swing states — in alphabetical order: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are within 2 percentage points. A systematic polling error, or a shift in the race in the final six weeks of the campaign, could result in one candidate sweeping all of these states. In our simulations this morning, Kamala Harris swept all seven of these battlegrounds 20 percent of the time, and Donald Trump did in 23 percent of the simulations.”
“But that leaves a majority of cases where the election will probably be close, and it’s worth sorting through the electoral math in case it is.”
