Reliability red Iowa has become competitive as Trump’s 18-point lead over Biden is just a 4-point lead over Kamala Harris.
The Des Moines Register reported on their latest poll:
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Vice President Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Democratic President Biden in late spring.
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Before Biden ended his reelection campaign, a June Iowa Poll showed Trump leading 50% to 32%.
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It also shows a sharp divide between men and women likely voters — Trump leads with men 59% to 32% over Harris. And Harris leads with women 53% to 36%.
None of this means that Kamala Harris could win Iowa, but the erosion of support for the ex-president in solidly red states is a pattern. It has happened in Florida and Texas, and now it is happening in Iowa.
The gains by Harris suggest that Trump is a weak candidate running a weak campaign with a problem of enthusiasm.
What Trump is seeing now mirrors what happened to Biden in blue states after the first presidential debate. The Trump campaign shows the classic traits of a campaign on the verge or in the process of collapse.
If this trajectory continues for another month, the polling could show a pronounced shift toward Kamala Harris.
Donald Trump now has an Iowa problem.
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Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
