A new New York Times/Siena College poll found Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris, 48% to 47%, within the poll’s three-percentage-point margin of error and largely unchanged from a Times/Siena poll taken in late July just after President Biden dropped his re-election bid.
Nate Cohn: “To me, the result is a bit surprising. It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls.”
“That said, it wouldn’t be hard to explain if Vice President Harris’s support really has faded a bit in recent weeks. After all, she was benefiting from an ideal news environment: an uninterrupted month of glowing coverage from President Biden’s departure from the race in July to the Democratic convention in August. It’s possible she was riding a political sugar high; if so, it would make sense if she came off those highs in the two uneventful weeks since the convention.”
