Jonathan Last: “Lichtman’s keys are not objective. The professor sells his model as a series of straightforward ‘true/false’ propositions. But he leaves a lot of room for subjectivity.”
“Some of the keys have actual answers. (‘Did the incumbent party gain House seats in the previous midterm?’) But most of them are nebulous.”
“Are the incumbent and challenger nominees charismatic? Lichtman says that neither Harris nor Trump qualifies as charismatic. I do not understand this judgment. Harris has excited and unified her party in less than a month. Trump has created a cult of personality unlike anything in American political history.”
“This isn’t a ‘key’ so much as a way for the modeler to build in some wiggle room.”
