Nate Silver: “Kamala Harris leads by 3.8 points in our national polling average and would be a clear favorite in an election held today — but you can see the effects of the model’s convention bounce adjustment in why November’s result is still projected at basically 50/50. This is the period when we’d expect Harris to be at the very height of her convention bounce, and the over/under line for polls conducted during this period is something like 4 or 4.5 points; better numbers than that will tend to help her in the forecast, while worse ones will tend to hurt her.”
“The model expects the convention bounce to dissipate over the course of roughly three weeks. So a poll showing Harris ahead by 4 points in a week or two would likely be a net positive for her. But for right now, the bar is set pretty high.”
