Nate Silver: “In polls that test the ballot both with and without RFK, which our model diligently tracks as part of the adjustment it makes for his presence on the ballot, we find Trump losing an average of 3.0 points when Kennedy is included, and Harris losing 2.4 points.”
“In other words, he takes more of his votes than Trump (about 55 percent) than Harris (45 percent)… Given that he has just 4 percent of the vote now, having Trump regain 55 percent of those votes would only make a net difference of 0.4 points instead.”
“And there are some other complications. One is that polls that include RFK Jr. usually also include other third-party candidates, like Jill Stein and the Libertarian Chase Oliver. Some of RFK’s votes would probably go to those candidates instead, rather than one of the major party candidates.”
