The 2024 NFL draft in Detroit saw one of the most hotly anticipated crops of college quarterbacks in recent memory find out where they would begin forging their legacies in the NFL. A record six first-round QBs were taken off the board, and each of them landed in wildly different circumstances.
Some of the worst-performing franchises in the league for the past few years have gambled the entire direction of their team on their rookies, meaning their every action will be scrutinized for hints of future promise or disappointment.
Here is a look at all the first-round QBs drafted in 2024 and how they can expect to fare in the upcoming NFL season.
Caleb Williams (Round 1, Pick 1)
By pairing the most highly touted of all first-round QBs since Andrew Luck with a radically overhauled wide receiver room, the Chicago Bears are hoping to see immediate improvements on their 7-10 record from 2023.
Williams is expected to arrive in the NFL and instantly attain elite status, with pre-draft scouting reports raving about his incredible throwing talent, instinctive command of the pocket and ability to improvise. Pro Football Network’s Ian Cummings went as far as to call him a: “Near-generational creator with incredible sense, spatial awareness, agility, and control.”
Alongside Williams, Chicago has made big strides in shoring up a group of wide receivers that, outside of D.J Moore, failed to meet expectations last year. Signing six-time Pro-Bowler Keenan Allen from the Chargers and drafting Washington’s Rome Odunze with the ninth-overall pick mean Williams now has three legitimate weapons to throw to.
With their passing game of the future locked up and an already strong defense that finished 2023 with the 12th fewest yards allowed per game in the NFL, the Bears are definitely within striking distance of making the playoffs as a wildcard.
Williams has found himself in pretty favorable situation, especially compared to other recent first-round QBs and so he can be expected to put up some impressive stats and make highlight reel plays, like this one from the preseason:
CALEB WILLIAMS. WOW 🤯
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/NJbnrJlbz4
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) August 17, 2024
Jayden Daniels (Round 1, Pick 2)
Though he and Caleb Williams share the honor of having won college football’s most prestigious individual award- the Heisman Trophy – Jayden Daniels now finds himself in a very different situation than the man taken one pick before him.
The 2023 Washington Commanders finished with the joint-second worst record in the NFL, tallying just four wins against 13 losses. As compensation for their struggles, they were able to draft a QB who threw for 40 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions in his final year of college, while adding ten more scores on the ground as well.
However, lingering questions remain about the dearth of talent on their roster and whether they can set their franchise player up to succeed.
In terms of pass catchers, the Commanders can boast a respectable number one receiver in Terri McLaurin, who has four consecutive 1,000 yard seasons under his belt. Beyond him though, things are much less inspiring, with Jahan Dotson traded to the Eagles and Dyami Brown notching just 168 yards and one touchdown last year.
Compounding these worries is the fact that Washington is widely seen as having one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL, having installed three largely unproven players in starting roles there this off-season.
While Daniels possesses the kind of explosive running ability to mitigate his exposure to defensive pressure, forcing a rookie QB to consistently throw under pressure to receivers who aren’t open isn’t a recipe for a well-functioning offence. Expect the Commanders to be satisfied if Daniels can paper over some of his side’s glaring weaknesses, even if his raw numbers aren’t all that impressive.
Drake Maye (Round 1, Pick 3)
Up next is the first of these first-round QBs that hasn’t been named their team’s starter for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season: Drake Maye of the New England Patriots.
With head coach Jerod Mayo in just his first year with the team and coming off the back of their own 4-record, the Patriots are firmly in rebuilding mode and have decided to give their highly-drafted QB some time as a reserve to acclimate properly to professional football.
Taking the starting role in his place will be 31-year-old Jacoby Brissett who, despite coming off an impressive relief stint with the Commanders, is firmly a backup level QB meant to bridge the gap until Maye is ready to take the field.
He will be throwing to a receiving corps of Kendrick Bourne (who racked up just 406 yards with the Patriots last year) and rookies DeMario Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk. Not only that, but New England also boasts a bottom-tier offensive line, filled with raw and inexperienced players and a left tackle who has played just two snaps at the position before this season.
All signs point to an offence that will struggle to move the ball down the field and if/when that occurs, the clamour from fans to see what Maye can offer will only grow louder. All eyes will be on him if he ascends to the starting role mid-season.
Fortunately, Maye profiles as someone who could significantly elevate an offence all on his own, as scouts last season were attracted to his precision and velocity when throwing the ball, and well-developed processing capabilities to accurately diagnose defenses.
Michael Penix Jr. (Round 1, Pick 8)
The next two first-round QBs contested the College Football Playoff National Championship game against one another in 2023, with McCarthy’s Michigan defeating Penix’s Washington by a score of 35-13.
The pair find themselves reunited again on this list through the shared fact that neither of them will take meaningful snaps in the NFL next season, although for very different reasons.
In what was the biggest surprise of the entire draft, the Atlanta Falcons took Penix with the eighth overall pick, despite having only recently handed Kirk Cousins a massive $180 million deal that ties him to the Falcons until at least 2026.
Some have questioned the wisdom of the move, given Penix’s advanced age compared to other first-round QBs and history of severe injuries. These doubts have only intensified in the wake of the Falcons’ decision to give the rookie just five series’ worth of experiences in the team’s preseason matches, with head coach Raheem Morris claiming Penix: “showed us enough that we don’t have to play him again in the preseason.”
With Cousins the high-profile free agent signing expected to lead the Falcons on a deep playoff run, there will be little room for Penix to take to the field in 2024, unless Cousins gets hurt again (he missed most of 2023 with a torn Achilles tendon).
J.J. McCarthy (Round 1, Pick 10)
On the other hand, there is even less of a pathway for J.J. McCarthy to make his NFL debut in 2024, as he has been ruled out for the entire season after undergoing surgery for a meniscus tear in his knee.
He wasn’t expected to start for the Minnesota Vikings this year anyway, but the news was still bitterly disappointing to Vikings fans, many of whom were impressed by McCarthy’s 118 yard and two touchdown game against the Las Vegas Raiders in his only outing of the preseason.
Bo Nix (Round 1, Pick 12)
Moving on from Russell Wilson just two seasons into his five-year contract with the Denver Broncos was probably the right thing to do for the long term health of the team.
Though Wilson’s numbers had improved from his disastrous 2022 season, the Broncos weren’t close to being the contending team they thought they were going to be, his athleticism had clearly declined and he didn’t get along with new head coach Sean Payton.
Having reset the organisation’s timeline completely (while eating a massive $53 million dollar dead cap hit in 2024 alone), the Broncos turned to Oregon’s Bo Nix to revive the franchise’s fortunes.
Though an undeniably fantastic athlete and competent processor with a strong arm and good anticipation, Nix can occasionally struggle to make decisions quickly and isn’t always comfortable when forced to make difficult throws.
At 24, he’s also on the very upper end of the age scale for rookie first-round QBs, which some have suggested puts a limit on how much future development can reasonably be expected from him.
That said, he does have a few things working in his favor, most notably Sean Payton himself, who is one of the more gifted offensive coaches of the past decade.
Relying on quick-developing, short-range passing plays to efficiently move the ball down field, Payton will hopefully be able to scheme-up open receivers and give Nix easy reads through his progressions.
The Broncos also boast a solid, if unspectacular, group of wide receivers including Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Josh Reynolds, all of whom have seen success in a secondary role and may thrive with a higher volume of targets.
Combine that with a slightly above average offensive line and though Nix isn’t in the best conceivable situation for a player with his skills, he is also far from the worst and could prove quietly effective.
Fless13, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
