A series of new New York Times/Siena College polls show how quickly Kamala Harris has reshaped the terrain of 2024 and thrust the Sun Belt back to the center of the battleground-state map.
Harris is now leading Donald Trump among likely voters in Arizona and has even edged ahead of Trump in North Carolina — a state Trump won four years ago — while narrowing his lead significantly in Georgia and Nevada.
Trump and Harris are tied at 48% across an average of the four Sun Belt states in surveys conducted Aug. 8 to 15.
- Arizona: Harris 50%, Trump 45%
- Georgia: Trump 50%, Harris 46%
- Nevada: Trump 48%, Harris 47%
- North Carolina: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
Nate Cohn: “I wouldn’t dwell too much on the precise results by state. On their own, each state poll is relatively inexact and subject to lots of uncertainty. Instead, focus on the big picture: Across the four states, it’s a dead heat. And a dead heat in these four states is not great news for Mr. Trump, who may need to take all three of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona to win in November.”
