Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Umar Nurmagomedov puts his 17-0 pro record on the line against No. 2-ranked bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen in the main event of the UFC’s return to Abu Dhabi.
Saturday’s card also has the return, and possible finale, of former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson who will look to avoid what would be a record eighth consecutive loss when he meets Michael Chiesa.
The co-main event sees Sharabutdin Magomedov face Michal Oleksiejczuk in a matchup of aggressive strikers and the six-fight main card also features a 135-pound contest between Marlon Vera and Deiveson Figueiredo.
Complete UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov bout order and predictions below.
MAIN CARD
— Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
— Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
— Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
— Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
— Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez
— Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Azamat Murzakanov vs. Alonzo Menifield
— Mohammad Yahya vs. Kaue Fernandes
— Shamil Gaziev vs. Don’Tale Mayes
— Guram Kutateladze vs. Jordan Vucenic
— Victoria Dudakova vs. Sam Hughes
— Jai Herbert vs. Rolando Bedoya
— Sedriques Dumas vs. Denis Tiuliulin
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Vera vs. Figueiredo Starts Round 2 -800 (FanDuel)
Both Vera and Figueiredo have been the picture of durability in their careers. Vera has never been stopped in a professional bout and Figueiredo has only suffered two such losses inside the distance, both of which happened in the third round (or the conclusion of the third round in a five-round bout). This fight starting the second round, barring some sort of freak injury, feels like a foregone conclusion.
Dan: Sam Hughes v Victoria Dudakova starts Round 2 -1450 (FanDuel)
These two strawweight are evenly matched and this bout has score cards written all over it. Will take the easy way out here once again. Would be shocked if it ended in Round 1.
Mike: Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk does not go distance -215 (BetRivers)
Oleksiejczuk has only seen the scorecards three times in his 14-fight UFC career and not once in his past six fights. He is always aggressive, which could backfire against an accurate striker like his Russian opponent. Magomedov is 13-0 with 11 finishes.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -131 (to win: $76.19)
2024 Record: 12-13 (current streak: W2)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$165.10
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Michael Chiesa vs. Tony Ferguson Starts Round 3 -142 (FanDuel)
There are not many favourites priced below -200 that I am confident in, so I will go with this round prop in the Chiesa versus Ferguson bout. While Ferguson has been on a visible decline, one thing that cannot be denied is his durability. With the exception of his fight against Michael Chandler, the other six of his bouts that have taken place during his seven-fight losing streak have reached the third round and that is against opposition that are at least of similar calibre to Chiesa. I expect that this fight sees the third round and more than likely goes to a decision.
Dan: Joel Alvarez -166 (DraftKings)
Elves Brener gives up a significant reach and height advantage in this one. Joel Alvarez bounced back nicely from a KO loss to Arman Tsarukyan by dispatching Marc Diakese via submission, reminding everyone he is a capable of ending a bout by strikes or strangle.
Mike: Victoria Dudakova -162 (DraftKings)
Dudakova is one of four Russian fighters putting their unblemished records on the line and as long as her cardio holds up I think, based on career trajectory and what should be a slight wrestling advantage, that she will get her hand raised over the 8-6 Sam Hughes.
Aaron’s favourite record: 15-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$12.18
Dan’s favourite record: 17-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$283.39
Mike’s favourite record: 16-9
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$188.15
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Rolando Bedoya +126 (FanDuel)
The fight between Bedoya and Jai Herbert comes down to volume. Both fighters will be content to keep it on the feet and despite Bedoya being winless in his two UFC bouts, one constant has been his pace and output. Herbert lands just 2.69 significant strikes per minute compared to the potent offence of Bedoya at 8.70 significant strikes per minute. I expect Bedoya overwhelms Herbert if he is unable to find a finish, which he has only been able to do in one of his seven UFC bouts.
Dan: Marlon Vera +130 (Betway)
“Chito” Vera went 5 gruelling rounds with Sean O’Malley back in March and despite taking the a decision loss, his tremendous durability was on full display. I just think Vera is the better fighter here…but I have been proven wrong several times with my underdog picks.
Mike: Cory Sandhagen +270 (DraftKings)
Do not count me among those who will be shocked if Nurmagomedov is able to impose his will on Sandhagen via his dominant wrestling to remain undefeated, but Sandhagen is one of the most skilled fighters on the entire UFC roster regardless of weight class, in my opinion, and at this number is way undervalued. He has more than one way to win this fight. Based on the style clash and how Sandhagen has lost in the past Nurmagomedov’s spot as the chalk is probably warranted but he does not hold a single win over a ranked opponent. Sandhagen is a massive upgrade in competition.
Aaron’s underdog record: 9-16
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$325
Dan’s underdog record: 7-18
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$955
Mike’s underdog record: 10-15
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$263
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Brener by KO/TKO +600 (DraftKings)
Joel Alvarez has been somewhat inactive in recent years, averaging just one fight per year, while Brener now has his fifth assignment since signing at the beginning of 2023. Alvarez is largely a submission specialist and I think that will bode well for Brener, who is one of the main training partners of Charles Oliveira. One of the issues that Alvarez has faced is that he runs out of ideas if he is unable to find a submission and if Brener can withstand those attacks early, I can see a scenario where he scores a second- or third-round KO/TKO finish.
Dan: Vera wins by KO/TKO +510 (BetRivers)
Will stay on the Chito train here. Figueiredo is a great fighter but he has been stopped before. I think Vera wins and does it in spectacular fashion.
Mike: Oleksiejczuk to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 +600 (FanDuel)
Oleksiejczuk is being set up to lose to a touted undefeated fighter competing in front of what will likely be a pro-Magomedov crowd. Would be a real shame if the underdog came out swinging and won in highlight fashion. A real shame.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 4-20-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$100
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-24
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,700
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-19-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,950
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)
