Nate Silver‘s latest forecast finds Kamala Harris is a slight favorite over Donald Trump to win the popular vote, 54% to 46%.
However, she’s a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College, 38% to 61%.
Key takeaway: “If an election were held today, we’d enter the evening with a lot of uncertainty about the outcome, both because the polling in the pivotal Blue Wall states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) has been close since Biden dropped out of the race and because there’s some intrinsic uncertainty about where the race stands given how much news there’s been lately.”
And a caveat: “This number may bounce around some because there hasn’t been all that much high-quality state polling since Biden dropped out.”
