Maduro, Venezuela’s president since Chavez’s death in 2013, has survived crippling sanctions, mass protests, a U.S.-backed shadow government, an uprising and even a coup attempt. The country, meanwhile, has suffered global isolation, an economic collapse and a mass exodus — crises that he has used to tighten his grip on power.
By some measures, Venezuela, blessed with the world’s largest proven oil reserves, was once the richest country in South America. But between 2012 and 2020, its economy shrank the most of any nation not at war in modern history. Soaring inflation, widespread violence, shortages of staple goods and services, and a repressive government have led more than 7 million people to flee in what the United Nations describes as one of the largest migrant crises in the world.
To understand what is at stake in Sunday’s vote, it is helpful to review the events that brought Venezuela to this point.
Chávez dies, Maduro takes power
December 2012: Chávez, a former army officer who led what he called a socialist revolution, has ruled Venezuela for 14 years as president. Now dying of cancer, the popular president makes a final television appearance and names his heir: Maduro, the bus driver turned union leader serving as his vice president.
On March 5, 2013, the government announces Chávez’s death. The constitution requires that an election be held within 30 days.
April 2013: In the election to replace Chávez, Maduro claims a narrow victory over opposition candidate Henrique Capriles. Capriles calls for a recount, citing irregularities in the voting.
Protests spread across the country, and security forces kill 43 people in the demonstrations.
The economy collapses, and Venezuelans flee
December 2015: In its first important victory against Maduro, the opposition won elections that allowed it to control the National Assembly.
2016-2017: A slow economic decline that began under Chávez accelerates into a humanitarian crisis. Government mismanagement and plummeting oil prices lead to shortages of food, medicines and other goods. Inflation soars past 700 percent. Venezuelans wait in long lines to buy food. Some loot supermarkets. Children starve. Street crime spreads. Blackouts become part of daily life. Millions flee — many to Colombia; others to Brazil, Ecuador and Chile; some to the United States.
March 2017: Venezuela’s supreme court, packed with Maduro loyalists, strips the opposition-controlled National Assembly of its powers and designates a new legislature. The opposition accuses Maduro of staging a coup.
April 2017: Thousands pour into the streets in weeks of anti-government demonstrations. The country slides toward anarchy; pro-government motorcycle gangs known as “colectivos” respond to the protesters with lethal force. Security forces kill more than 100 people.
Maduro convenes a special assembly to rewrite the constitution and grant him more power. U.S. and Latin American leaders warn that his government is veering toward dictatorship. The Trump administration moves to restrict Venezuela’s access to the U.S. financial system.
An opposition movement grows in fits and starts
May 2018: The government holds a presidential election but bars traditional opposition parties from fielding candidates. The opposition calls for a boycott of the vote. Maduro claims victory; the election is condemned internationally as fraudulent.
January 2019: Juan Guaidó, president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, invokes the constitution, which makes the head of the legislature next in line if a “usurper” takes office, to declare himself the country’s rightful leader. The United States and more than 50 other governments recognize Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president.
Maduro cuts diplomatic relations with Washington. The Trump administration effectively halts U.S. purchases of Venezuelan oil.
February 2019: Opposition leaders try to bring millions of dollars in food and medical aid into Venezuela. But the convoy is blocked by Maduro, who characterizes it as a thinly veiled attempt by the United States to invade. Maduro’s security forces and the U.S.-backed opposition meet in a dramatic and violent showdown at the border.
March 2019: A nationwide blackout leaves Venezuela in the dark for more than a week. Persistent failures in the decaying electrical grid exacerbate water shortages, leading some residents to turn to sewage systems. The arrival of the coronavirus in 2020 further strains the health system and the economy.
April 30, 2019: Guaidó appears outside La Carlota military base in Caracas to declare an uprising. At his side are his mentor, opposition leader Leopoldo López, freed by soldiers from house arrest, and rebellious military officers and troops.
They invite the military and regular Venezuelans to join them in casting off the “dictatorship.” For several hours, protesters fill the streets of Caracas and other cities. But most troops remain loyal to Maduro, causing the plot to fail.
Guaidó would later concede that the opposition had miscalculated its support within the military. He continues to call for demonstrations, but after the failure of the aid convoy and the uprising, participation begins to decline.
January 2020: In an interview with The Washington Post, Maduro says it’s time for direct talks with the United States. The opposition loses momentum, and Maduro strengthens his control over the country through coronavirus vaccination plans and restrictions.
May 2020: Former Green Beret Jordan Goudreau and former Venezuelan Army Maj. Gen. Cliver Alcalá launch Operation Gideon, a murky plot to infiltrate Venezuela and apprehend Maduro. The participants include two more former Green Berets and scores of exiled Venezuelan soldiers who have gathered and trained in Colombia.
But Maduro’s intelligence services have penetrated the plot, and when the group lands at Macuto, his security forces are waiting. They kill six participants and arrest more than 90, including former Green Berets Airan Berry and Luke Denman.
Maduro gains strength; the United States reaches out
March 2022: Biden administration officials travel to Caracas to meet with the Maduro government. It’s a major departure from the Trump administration’s maximum-pressure approach. The Biden administration effort is aimed in part at driving a wedge between Caracas and its friends in Moscow, Beijing and Tehran and in part at securing more access to energy amid Russia’s war with Ukraine. In May 2022, the administration begins to ease some sanctions on Venezuelan oil.
December 2022: The opposition dissolves Guaidó’s shadow government. Record numbers of Venezuelans are arriving at the U.S. southern border, many having crossed the Darién Gap, the 60-mile stretch of roadless, criminal-infested jungle between Colombia and Panama that connects South America and North America.
October 2023: The Biden administration eases oil, gas and gold sanctions on Venezuela in exchange for promises from Maduro to hold a competitive, internationally monitored presidential election in 2024. Maduro representatives and opposition leaders sign an electoral agreement in Barbados. Days later, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado sweeps the primaries, winning 92 percent of the vote to run against Maduro.
2024: Venezuela’s supreme court rules Machado ineligible to run in the election. The Maduro government clamps down on the opposition, arresting activists and political leaders, and bars European observers from monitoring the election. The Biden administration accuses Maduro of breaking his promises and reimposes sanctions.
The Maduro government allows a Machado substitute, former diplomat Edmundo González, to register as an opposition candidate for the Sunday election.
