If you ever wondered if presidential debates mattered, that was put to rest this year. The fallout from last month’s debate triggered the most tumultuous period in recent political history.
Here’s what I’m thinking the morning after Joe Biden exited the race:
- Donald Trump uses the slogan “America First” to suggest he won’t let the country be pushed around by foreigners. But Biden proved that slogan is more appropriate for Democrats since unlike Trump he put his aside his own personal ambition for the good of the country. Democrats should rebrand Republicans as “Trump First.”
- Reports suggest that it was the bad polling that finally convinced Biden to step aside. But most Democrats had quickly recognized he wasn’t up to the job anymore after seeing that first debate. The polling was a trailing indicator.
- The broad consensus to move on from Biden was proven by how quickly the party consolidated behind Kamala Harris, as evidenced by endorsements, a surge in donations and no emerging rivals.
- If a competitor does emerge, Harris would be nearly impossible to beat. But the process must still be transparent so it does not look like party insiders simply handed her the nomination. That’s why top Democrats like Nancy Pelsoi, Barack Obama, Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer haven’t endorsed her yet.
- Trump is a terribly weak candidate. His approval numbers are terrible, he says offensive things almost every time he opens his mouth and scandal follows him everywhere. But his superpower is that his supporters give him the room to modify his most controversial positions — like on abortion — without too much push back.
- Kamala Harris will need similar accommodation from Democrats as she tries to consolidate the party behind her. The honeymoon period she’ll have over the next few weeks is critical to reshape how the public views her.
- Harris’s biggest problem is that she’s viewed as more liberal than the average voter. It would be helpful for her to stake out some more moderate positions in the next week.
- Trump’s entire campaign was built to run against Biden. It’s hard to underestimate how damaging Biden’s exit was to Trump’s chances. I suspect the polling after the Democratic convention will show a very different race.
What are you thinking? Leave your thoughts in the comments.
