Nate Silver: “At Polymarket, Donald Trump’s chances of winning have dropped to 62 percent. That’s down quite a bit from a peak of 72 percent on Tuesday morning.”
“While I have complicated feelings about the relative merits of models and prediction markets, this is one of those times when prediction markets are probably the more useful tool. That’s because political events have been unfolding faster than polls or models have time to catch up with them.”
“Just in the past week, Trump was shot at and nearly killed, named J.D. Vance as his running mate, and accepted the Republican nomination with a very long speech in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, of course, Democrats are trying to figure out what to do about Biden, and our model isn’t accounting for the possibility that another candidate could replace him.”
