Matthew Yglesias: “It is incredibly hard to take over a fledging political party and lead it to electoral victory. Parties do not generally change leaders when the political wind is blowing their way; it’s usually an act in political desperation, a last minute heave to see if a fresh face will meaningfully change voter perceptions.”
“While the circumstances are quite different, this worked to a degree in Australia, Sweden, and the UK. The ruling party did see a meaningful boost in polling. And while it’s not entirely clear if there was any correlation, it’s notable that two of those examples happened with first-ever female prime ministers.”
“Again, these are essentially anecdotes so it’s hard to draw any concrete lesson, but the polling boosts were real, and if they failed to result in victory, it was largely because the parties themselves were not popular enough to hold together a majority coalition.”
“And I think it’s worth noting that the 2024 Democratic Party is not exactly unpopular.”
